Where is the two, there are the third one? Polish GDP in trouble for 50 % US duties to import with the EU

Possible imposition of customs by the US to the entire import of the European Union at 50 percent. would reduce Polish GDP growth in 2025 by 0.2 points. percent- estimate PKO BP.

“For Poland, thanks to the low exposure to the American market, the direct effects of duties growth should be more moderate. The main impact channel will be a decrease in demand in the euro area and the influence of financial markets” – wrote in the PKO BP report.

Our simulations indicate that the duty 50 percent (applicable from the second half of 2025) would reduce the national GDP growth in 2025 by 0.2 points. percent, and in the horizon a few years cumulative GDP level would be lower by no more than 2 percent. – Added.

The authors of the report indicate that the direction of CPI changes in response to higher duties remains indefinite.

“Lower external demand would promote disinflation, But possible retaliation could neutralize this effect. The direction of CPI changes remains indefinite. The weaker economic situation suggests lower interest rates than in the base scenario, but the increase in global uncertainty would probably lead the MPC to maintain careful attitude, “it was written.

“Although the negative effects of duties could be counted with fiscal expansion, the upcoming necessary consolidation limits the space to it, leaving the field of budget policy maneuver practically exhausted” – added.

Economists of PKO BP indicate that the administration of US President Donald Trump maintains that in the event of the failure of “Zero-For-Zero” conversations on July 9, 2025, it will raise customs duties on all imports from the EU to 50 percent. from the current 10 percent

“Such a decisive escalation would result in a full -scale trade war with serious consequences on both sides of the Atlantic and the outdating of current forecasts,” it was written in the report. (PAP Biznes)

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