This is how the Russians look at Israel's war with Iran. “Cycory Fun”
– The Russians look at this conflict with attention. And for several reasons. First of all, Iran is a very important ally for them, thanks to which you could export and import various things. It was there where the supply chains, which were broken because of the sanctions for Russia, were played. The more that Iran had experience in bypassing some sanctions. This Iranian knowledge was very important to Russia – The answer begins, Lt. Col. res. Maciej Korowaj, an analyst of Russian military.
– The second aspect is a matter of the allied image of Russia. In the Security Council, Russia is a kind of diplomatic guardian of Iran – he adds.
Domination in the air
Polish military has no doubt that the Russians calculate on the principle: The more resources the West will spend on Iran, the less he will be able to spend on Ukraine.
Another aspect concerns America. – The Russians look here at the United States agency in the Middle East. And this is not even about whether Iran will be defeated, but about what strength Americans will show here. In Ukraine, Americans have not been showing this agency lately and the Russians see it – he says.
Onet's interlocutor pays attention to one more thing. – Israel's war with Iran shows Russia how far the western technique of waging war has gonewhen it comes to all these elements related to dominance in the air. The Russians see that the West manages to achieve political goals with the help of air strikes.
Rosatom from Iran does not leave
Lt. Col. Korowaj also analyzes Putin's assurances, who claims that “Russia has repeatedly informed Israel, that there is no evidence that Iran wants to have nuclear weapons.”
“This is setting up for future peace negotiations between Israel and Iran,” says the analyst. “You will have to have a curator who will watch over the Iranian nuclear program.” Iran will certainly not agree to international control, but for example he will be able to hand it over to Russian specialists. The more that Rosatom was strongly involved in the Iranian nuclear program – reminds.
– Iran's hardness in possible negotiations with Israel or the United States will result from the feeling that Russia is behind him. It's crucial, because Russia is in the Security Council and therefore Nothing will fly there unfavorable for Iran. Importantly, Russia also has its people in Iran all the time. I am talking about a team of Rosatom employees who have not been evacuated mostly from the information that I have so far.
Iranian table Putin's dream
Polish military also devotes a few sentences to Putin's statements, who claims that we are getting closer to the Third World War, and one of the most important inflammatory points is the Israeli-Iranian war.
– Putin is very rarely speaking in this style. If so, such voices come from his lower -level employees. In my opinion, such Putin's words testify to the fact that Russia is very demanding to participate in conversations between Israel and Iran. And why do they care about it so much? Russia is looking for another table where she could win Ukrainian affairs. Iran is ideal for this. Putin dreams of establishing some Ukrainian matters at the Iranian table, where Russia would be a significant player.
Lt. Col. Korowaj is convinced that in the long run it is not profitable to wage war, both between Iran and Israel and the one between Russia and Ukraine.
– Russia ends with the possibilities of success in Ukraine through military strikes, through military pressure. She suffers a lot in this war. This is the last year when he can afford offensive activities on such a large scale – he notes.
“Cycory Fun”
On the other hand, as emphasized by Colonel Korowaj, and Israel also has a big problem. – Israel cannot carry out air operations all the time, because it is a great effort for such a distance. Of course, Israel's air force has a phenomenal combat capacity and the ability to play combat readiness, because they were constructed in such a way as to withstand very high air surgery. Nevertheless These operations in Iran are increasingly weakening and Israelis must use their strength more sparingly.
– Iran also lost a lot in these operations. His offensive capabilities were very highly reduced, but above all decision -making. Because Israel's attack was very precisely aimed at the Iranian decision system. Either way, certain actions and possibilities are exhausted, so decisions must be made here and now. Unless any major change comes, for example introduction of American forces to surgery in Iran – comments.
When describing the war between Iran and Israel, Lt. Col. Korowaj uses a picture comparison: – It all looks a bit like fun in the cycle. Both sides know that something ends, but they go straight at each other and watch who will turn first.
Onet's interlocutor points to another important player. – For some this Chinese inactivity may be puzzling. But weak Iran is a better position for China in this area. Just as weak Russia is better for China. I think that this is why China does not progress too aggressively in relation to what is happening in Ukraine and Iran. Because it just doesn't pay off – he puts.
