Europe's armament can cost a trillion of dollars. This is the effect of 30 years of neglect
In recent months, Europe has become much less safe. Since Donald Trump took office, they have appeared doubts as to whether the United States will actually come to the aid of Europeansif NATO European partners are attacked by Russia. Experts are also relatively sure that in the coming years Trump's administration will probably significantly reduce the level of their troops in Europe.
– The old 2 percent, which we decided in 2014, are not even close to achieving goals in terms of abilities that are needed to fill the gaps in our defense system – said Rutte. – We can defend ourselves against Russia at the moment, but not in three, five or seven years.
Fears of Western defense planners: After the war in Ukraine, Moscow can use its recruitment efforts and strengthened war management to quickly rebuild the decimated Russian army for pre -war strength and not only – and Then it will pose a serious threat to Europe.
Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General, at a press conference after an informal meeting of foreign ministers of member states. Antalya, May 15, 2025
“Russia's economy is in war, and Her defense industry works all the time” – we read in a recent report of the reputable International Institute of Strategic Studies (Iiss).” As soon as the fighting in Ukraine ends, it is very likely that Russia reorganizes its armed forces in order to possibly place them against the European partner NATO. “
In the face of this threat, the idea of defending Europe without the United States is a nightmare. NATO's previous plans have assigned a central role to the United States in defense of Europe. In his report, Iiss calculated how much Europe would cost if she had to take an American participation on her shoulders.
The list of European neglect is very long
The result is sobering: the purchase of equipment and its maintenance for 25 years to replace the US contribution would cost a trillion of dollars [ok. 3,75 bln zł]. The authors calculate that, according to NATO's secret plans, Americans would arrange around 128,000 soldiers to defend Europe in a crisis – both those who are already stationed there and additional units that would have to be brought to the fighting zone with the USA.
Without the USA, Europe would have to provide these additional combat units. At the same time, NATO European partners in all three types of armed forces – on land, at sea and air – There is a lack of both people and the ability to be able to defend themselves.
Europe needs about 400 modern combat aircraft, which is the most expensive item on the long Iiss wish list, the cost of which is estimated at 48 to 64 million dollars. [ok. 180-240 mln zł]. Europe would also need 20 destroyers, 24 long -range air defense systems, 10 nuclear submarines, 600 combat tanks, 2700 long -range sea missile missiles, 800 infantry combat vehicles, 200 combat helicopters, six frigates and two aircraft carriers to mention only ten of the most expensive lack in abilities in abilities combat.
In fact, this list is much longer. It is difficult to estimate the cost lack of collection of intelligence data in Europewhich until now have been largely run by the USA. “This includes communication, command and control systems, as well as cosmic skills and strategic recognition” – we read in the report.
The problem lies not only in financing, but also in a small amount of time that remained. After the block confrontation in the early 1990s. All European countries have reduced their armed forces and the defense industry. Now what has been reduced for three decades must be rebuilt in just a few years.
Make it in front of the Russians
IISS tests assume that this summer may be suspended, and Russia will return to the level before the war by 2027. Other defense experts, such as Christian Moelling, are more likely to establish 2029 – also an extremely short time, taking into account the burdensome order processes.
“There is a deadline,” says Moelling in an interview with Die Welt. He is in favor of spending most money as soon as possible. – The initial investment must be made so that we can repel Russia's attack on NATO in 2029. In such a way that Russia would give up from the very beginning.
That is why it is important to act quickly.
However, the European defense industry There is currently not sufficient production capacity in this area. “While orders for deliveries for land forces gained momentum, in the navy and a significant part of the air sector no such urgency has been recorded yet, and additional investments in increasing production capacity were small.” – we read in the Iiss report.
Although European allies no longer trust Trump America anymore, and so They will be forced to continue buying a part of defense equipment from the USA. Development on its own would take too much time. “Over the next decade, the European defense industry will have difficulty replacing many American abilities, especially in the Air Force and Navy,” writes Iiss. Faster progress can be achieved in the army area.
“Time is the only thing that is not negotiable,” says Moelling. In other issues, you can compromise. Because as soon as Russia regains strength after the war in Ukraine, according to the IISS report in Europe, the “susceptibility window” will open.
Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, visits Uralwagonzawod, the main tank factory in the country, located in Nizhny Tagil, on February 15, 2024. A photo widespread by the Russian state agency Sputnik.
It is about the period when NATO European partners will not yet get off enough to be able to defend themselves without America, but Russia would already be able to hit. Because Moscow knows that Europeans want to eliminate this gap, it is the more encouragement for the Russians to hit rather sooner than later.
Experts such as Moelling, therefore, call for the priority treatment of the necessary large initial investments for the purpose building a powerful European defense system as soon as possible. Urgently needed areas include air defense, digitization and information on information, as well as weapon and transport systems for the needs of the land war.
For 30 years, Europeans were put to sleep with a false sense of security. Now a historic bill has been issued.
