Prof. Wincławska: Half Poland in the morning will be disappointed

We know for sure that half of Poland in the morning will be disappointed with the final results of the second round – said PAP prof. Maria Wincławska. In an interview with PAP, she assessed that if both surveys indicated Rafał Trzaskowski's minimal win in Exit Poll, it is a hint that he has a better chance of becoming president.

Rafał Trzaskowski won 50.3 percent in the second round of presidential elections. votes, Karol Nawrocki 49.7 percent – results from the Exit Poll survey performed by Ipsos for TVN24, TVP and Polsat News. The turnout in the election is estimated at 72.8 percent.

“This result tells us little, because the measurement error is 2 percentage points. However, the survey shows a tendency. In addition, in the second survey – OGB for the Republic – Trzaskowski also wins with a result of 50.17 percent. This is what he tells us a bit more. There were refusal to answer for the interviewers, but they are calculated in this result. The research workshop estimated, as they could decline,” political science, dr hab. Maria Wincławska, prof. Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń.

The expert added that Ipsos is making election polls once again and so far they were accurate. “The result is +on razor blades +. Trzaskowski's speech was already a speech of the winner. There were gentle inclusions that if the result was confirmed +. Nawrocki, however, also warmed up supporters and argued that he had to win at night. In front of both bars a long night in waiting for the results, first late, then partial from the election committees,” Wincławska emphasized.

She added that in the course of flowing results from individual committees at night there may be the moment when Nawrocki would lead. “Then there will be a burst of joy at the staff and among his supporters. In the morning, when the results from larger voting circuits begin to flow, this may change again. Of course, this is subject to a reservation about the possible error of the survey, which is 2 percentage points in the Exit Poll study and 1 point in the study of late Poll, and this is all the more than the difference between candidates from 21.00” – added the expert.

Tomasz Więcławski (PAP)

Twi/ WJ/