The US warns against the Chinese dragon. Radosław Pyffel: Now an interesting game is going on
On Friday, Singapore began a three-day Shangri-la dialogue security forum. Representatives of 47 countries participate in it. The United States recognized this region of Asia as a priority theater of activities and, as the American secretary of defense Pete HegeSth announced, “they change their strategy to scare away all aggression from communist China.” Beijing somehow boycotted this event, sending only an academic delegation.
“I wouldn't say it was a” boycott “, but” keeping the distance “for sure.” China's authorities have been impressive since the beginning of Trump's presidency as if they adopted a strategy of waiting and if they can, they rather avoid direct meetings with Americansand they meet only when they have to, the last time in Geneva, when there was an agreement and de -escalation in the trade war, and – we will see for how long – a reduction in customs rates – says Radosław Pyffel.
The expert reminds that in January Trump even invited XI to his inauguration, but he did not come and sent the vice -chairman of the PRC Han Zhenga.
Han Zheng at the inauguration of President Donald Trump (January 20, 2025)
-American-Chinese relations have been critical for a long time. The United States, about which Donald Trump speaks openly, withdraw from the role of hegemon, and propose a new security architecture in Europe and in Asia. But they want to do it in a way. The Trump administration convinces in Singapore that The burden of responsibility for events in that region of the world should mainly rest on Asianswhich threatens the danger from China and who should spend more on reinforcements – says Radosław Pyffel.
– Trump already in the election campaign said that China is the main threat, they are more and more aggressive and will not pass, that this is a lasting threat and that the costs of dealing with this case must be borne by Asians. However, the United States will not withdraw completely. They will remain, but they will support only those activities in which they will have an interest – says the expert.
Macron warnings
– North Korea in Ukraine is a great question for all of us. If China does not want NATO to be involved in Southeast Asia, they should prevent commitment [Korei Północnej] in European territory – said Emmanuel Macron during a speech at the Singapore summary. The President of France pointed out that he was opposed to NATO to play a role in Asia, because he did not believe in commitment to someone else's strategic competition. However, he suggested that Paris could change his position.
Emmanuel Macron in Singapore
– President Macron threatened China a little. Since Asia is involved in war in Europe, Europe can possibly get involved in the Indo-Pacific area. China can force Russia and North Korea that these countries, at least in a less ostentatious way, work militarily in Ukraine, or they can wash their hands and say that they do not interfere in the affairs of other countries and do not care what Moscow and Pyongyang do – emphasizes the expert for China.
-However, does Europe have cards to significantly influence events in the Indo-Pacific? After all, now, even when it comes to the war closer to us in Ukraine, European leaders play countless peaks and meetings, and then call Donald Trump anyway. I do not know if in this situation China recognizes that Europe “has cards” and one must somehow take into account Macron's demands, or whether they are not “cards” and this statement will not meet any significant reaction – emphasizes Onet's interlocutor.
Asia wants to arm more?
US Secretary of Defense Pete HegeSeth He called allies in Singapore to increase defense expenses. As an example, he gave European countries, which he said, thanks to the pressure of President Trump, improved their defense skills.
“What Europe is doing, must become a new example for Asia,” said HegeSeth. “It doesn't make sense that the key allies in Asia spent less on defense in the face of an even more powerful threat,” he added.
Radosław Pyffel points out that they are Two scenarios of further events in Asia. One assumes that Asians, instead of spending more and more reinforcements, as the US would like, will get along with China. – Remember that countries threatened in some way by Chinese domination now spend about 1.5 percent. GDP for reinforcements. Imagine that Taiwan, so threatened by Beijing, only just before the meeting in Singapore came to 3 percent. GDP. The US call: listen, you have to spend more on reinforcements, China is a great threat. Some of these countries may say that they will not follow this path and get along somehow with Beijing – explains the expert on China.
– On the other hand, it may also be that this mission will succeed in HegeSeth and that the Asians will really say that there is no advice and you need to increase the expenditure on reinforcements from 1.5 percent. GDP for 3 percent, or maybe even 5 percent – adds Onet interlocutor.
Chinese plan
The expert emphasizes that China can restore the tributary system in Asiai.e. a hierarchical system, in Asian culture considered something much more natural than in the egalitarian European culture or in Polish, in which the Middle Kingdom is at the forefront and “in which they are such a good father taking care of the entire Asian economy”. And this situation for some Asian countries may be more acceptable, and definitely less for others.
– For some Asians, the primacy of China would be a return to a certain state that has already functioned there for several thousand years, so for them it would not be something completely new. Asians look at it as a return to something that has already been – explains Radosław Pyffel.
I am asking my interlocutor if it is possible to clearly indicate which Asian countries will be willing to join the Chinese vision of the world. – in a simplification Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam are in the worst situationthat most do not want to return to the Chinese tributary system. However, several countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesiaalso reluctant to this, but like pragmatic Vietnam, they can balance between communication with China while good contacts with the US – explains the expert of the Sobieski Institute.
– Certainly the undoubted lennik, or rather the China vassal, are two countries: Cambodia and Laos. They are already inside the Chinese neo-tributar system-he emphasizes.
What next with Taiwan?
American defense secretary Pete HegeSeth also warned in Singapore that China “is preparing for potential use of military force” against Taiwan.
Pete HegeSeth in Singapore
– This is nothing new. Beijing's position has been unchanged for many years. They speak directly about the inclusion of the island, i.e. the so -called reunification and do not rule out the use of force. Everyone leads the so -called a strategy of ambiguity. Taiwan and his allies still have to live in uncertainty what China will do – they will attack the island or not. In Beijing also at 100 percent They don't know what the Americans will do – convinces Onet's interlocutor.
– HegeSeth wants to show that China is a threat, that Taiwan can attack at any time and at this way he tries to mobilize Asians so that, like Europeans, they spend more on reinforcements and take more responsibility. So there is an interesting game in Asia about the division of costs and establishing a new security architecture without US hegemony, but with their further presence. I think that in Poland and Europe we should look at it with great attention – he adds.
– I have the impression that The Chinese, according to their strategic culture, try to sit on the hill as long as possible and observe fighting tigers. They perhaps count on the fact that the Americans are “firing”, that they will have trouble pushing their vision of the world, that they neither Russia nor Europe nor Asia and Global South, and the spontaneously negotiating Trump will at some point become more a figure from the world of show business, and not a reliable partner in serious matters. And that's why they seem to give them an initiative. But it may also be that Beijing for now a passive and reminiscent of a hidden dragon and a crouching tiger, when he decides that his time has come, he will start with impetus and change the situation at all chessboard – concludes Radosław Pyffel.
