“The Financial Times”: Poland is a champion of former countries of socialism. He copes best from the countries of the Eastern Bloc
The Polish market is popular due to the fact that about three quarters of trade in Poland takes place within the EU. Thanks to this, it is less susceptible to the effects of a trade war unleashed by US President Donald Trump and is an attractive investment for some investors.
According to the latest forecasts of the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, Poland will have the strongest economy from among former EU communist countries this year, with an annual increase of 3.3 percent. GDP. There are several reasons.
The impulse from neighboring Germany, which reached for the fiscal “Bazooka”, had its participation in Polish success [zniesienie konstytucyjnego limitu zadłużenia].
The WIG Polska index increased by 28.6 percent. From the beginning of the year – despite the decline on Monday, May 19 after unexpectedly the leveled first round of presidential elections – placing before other prosperous markets, such as Chile and Greece. For comparison, the American S&P 500 index increased by approx. 1 percent.
Polish actions are listed with 15 % A discount on the MSCI Emerging Markets indicator.
– The market is small enough that foreign capital movements have a visible impact – says Piotr Arak, chief economist of Velobank.
– Trump's trade war resulted in the redirect of capital flows from the United States to emerging markets, such as Poland and part of Latin America, which are less affected by tutorials – adds the expert.
The WIG index value is around $ 135 billion. (approx. PLN 506 billion PLN 720 million, counting at the current exchange rate), compared to $ 2.9 trillion. (approx. PLN 10 trill of PLN 890 billion, counting at the current exchange rate) British FTSE 100 and over 50 trillion dollars. (approx. 187 trillion PLN 670 billion, counting at the current exchange rate) American S&P.
Poland, which this month for the first time since Donald Tusk returned to power in 2023, reduced interest rates, also benefits from a huge increase in planned expenses of neighboring Germany, its greatest trading partner.
The German economy struggling with problems caused anxiety in Warsaw last year. Kamil Stolarski, director for research on the stock market at Santander Polska, stated that these fears gave way to hope for a positive domino effect for Poland resulting from the “Fiscal Bazooki” package prepared by the new government in Berlin.
“Good economic results of Poland in the EU increase investors' trust”
According to Eurostat data in the first quarter of 2025, the Polish economy increased by 3.8 percent. GDP in terms of year -on -year, which is the second fastest increase in the EU after Ireland and significantly exceeds the average increase in the EU of 1.4 percent.
Meanwhile, analysts predict that the profit for the share of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange will increase by an average of about 10 percent. In 2025, companies from the financial services sector, which constitute the two -fifth of the WIG index, increase dividends after achieving record profits. In 2024, Polish banks achieved a total profit of PLN 42 billion (PLN 11 billion), compared to PLN 27.6 billion in the previous year.
Stock Exchange Center in Warsaw, headquarters of the Security Stock Exchange (illustrative photos)
– Poland should remain immunity in these turbulent times thanks to the diverse economy, large domestic market and limited exposure to direct trade from the US – said Beata Javorcik, the main economist of the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBOIR).
Internal policy also encourages investors. The return of Tusk and his pro -European coalition to power unlocked billions of euros from previously frozen EU funds. The government began to use this money – mainly for infrastructure projects and related to energy transformation – striving to make the country independent of coal.
The shares of the state -controlled energy concerns soared up – from the beginning of the year the ORLEN Oil Company share price increased by 53 percent, and PGE energy enterprises by 56 percent.
On Monday, May 19, the WIG index lost 0.8 percent, and attention is now focused on the second round of presidential elections, which will take place on June 1. Trzaskowski's victory in the second round would allow Tusk's government to continue the long -awaited reforms, which was previously blocked by the outgoing President Andrzej Duda, appointed by PiS. However, the possible defeat of Trzaskowski can destabilize the Tusk Coalition, and even lead to early parliamentary elections.
– The victory of the Tusk party candidate would be beneficial to the mood of investors towards Polish assets, while failure could cause new concerns about the continuation of reforms in Poland – said Piotr Bujak, chief economist of PKO BP.
Investors have recently focused on Trump's diplomatic efforts to negotiate a truce between Russia and Ukraine. This can make Poland become a strategic center for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
– I think that one of the main reasons for growth on the market is that investors really focus on peace in Ukraine – says Andrzej Kubisiak, deputy director of the Polish Economic Institute
– Poland's good economic results in the EU increase the trust of investors, although the result of peace conversations still poses a threat to further increases on the Warsaw Stock Exchange – he adds.
