Interactive How much did the surveys / exit-poli vs vs result of presidential elections 2025 in the race Nicușor Dan-George Simion

The independent candidate Nicușor Dan was elected the new president of Romania in a much clearer manner as all the opinion polls appeared between the first and second round. Going on a high presence in round 2, Nicușor Dan won by almost 54% in the country and diaspora, in line with the score indicated by Exit-Poll on the situation in the country at 9 pm.

George Simion won the first round of the presidential elections in 2025 with 41% of the votes, while Nicușor Dan was in second place, with 21%.

Five major opinion polls were published between the two tours.

The first, the earliest, was a verifield survey at the command of Nicușor Dan, published just two days after the first round. In that poll it was estimated that in a presence similar to the first round George Simion would win by 54.8%, and Nicușor Dan would take 45.2%.

Surveys between tours did not estimate the final difference between the two candidates

The mayor of Bucharest estimated then that he will be able to enter the score only by a great presence in the second round, with over 11 million Romanians to go out. In the elections on Sunday, May 18, over 11.64 million people went to vote in presidential elections 2025, tour 2.

As the days passed, between the two tours, especially after the first and only television debate between the two candidates, the difference in polls decreased between Nicușor Dan and George Simion.

An atlasintel survey conducted for HotNews.ro and published on May 12, it showed that both candidates were then in the electorate preferences – 48.2%. The survey also took into account the diaspora.

One day after, an IRSOP survey appeared, conducted by telephone on a sample of 951 people and did not include the diaspora. The sociological research then gave practically the closest score to the official registered on Sunday: 52% Nicușor Dan, 48% George Simion. The final results in the country, on Sunday, recorded 53.60% for Nicușor Dan and 46.40% for George Simion.

The last Atlasintel poll, the day before the completion of the election campaign, showed that in the country and Diaspora Nicușor passed in the first place, with 48.7%, while Simion was rated with 47.8%. The survey was conducted on a large sample, of over 5,600 digitally recruited people, but also had a percentage of 1.7% undeclared.

EXIT-POLL studies, closest to final results

Regarding the Sociological Studies of the EXIT-POLL, on the day of the vote, they were closest to the final results recorded on Sunday night, with the counting of votes.

The Avangarde exitpoll, valid for 9 pm, showed that in the country Nicușor Dan wins with 54.2%, and Simion takes 45.8%.

The exitpoll course, valid for 21.00, showed that in the country Nicușor Dan wins by 54%, and Simion takes 46%.

The final results recorded like this:

• Nicușor Dan: 55.16% (in the country) / 53.69% (total)
• George Simion: 44.84% (in the country) / 46.31% (total)

Surveys between Tour 1 and Tour 2: