- In fact, what has been signed is Ukraine's negotiating success. Finally, the first option proposed by the Americans was rejected – says Fursa
- Ukraine has nothing to lose on this contract. She is interested in American investments. Therefore, if the Americans look for something, dig and extract something, it will be a plus – explains our interlocutor
- It also explains what the next steps will be to perform the contract
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Mariia Tsiptsura: What gives Ukraine a raw material agreement? Is it a betrayal or victory?
Sergiej Fursa: This agreement does not give Ukraine. His main goal is Trump's satisfaction. In fact, what has been signed is Ukraine's negotiating success. Finally, the first option proposed by the Americans was rejected. This is a great job of Ukrainian negotiators. In the end, the US initially came up with a colonial style agreement, in which a huge non -existent debt was imposed on Ukraine. This was overcome. And now the contract has been adopted in a form in which it probably does not carry any special economic burden. And it is signed according to the “not harm” principle. So this agreement doesn't matter.
But he can't bring any economic benefits, at least in a short period?
No, it does not bring any economic benefits.
Is there any psychological factor for investors who could potentially enter Ukraine? Can it have any positive consequences?
We understand for sure that there will be no negative. For some American investors, there will be a positive understanding that there is a fund in Ukraine that can potentially invest? Well, theoretically yes. The fact that American government officials mention the fund in a positive way is also a plus. This creates a good information background. And this theoretically can be seen as a signal that you can invest in Ukraine. The agreement between the USA and Ukraine can benefit. But only theoretically. And so far it is a very speculative story. After all, there is no guarantee that he will bring anything. And there is no direct way to benefit.
What does this give Trump? It turns out that this is just a piece of paper, and he can now say: “I have concluded a contract”?
Well, relatively speaking, yes. For him it is an opportunity to show that he knows how to conclude contracts. And in the future it gives him a space to help Ukraine, even though he had objected to it earlier. Now he has an explanation for his own electorate and for himself why he can help Ukraine. After all, this will now be seen through the prism of American trade interests. This opens the possibility of explaining why military cooperation with Ukraine opens before Trump. This does not mean that he will support Ukraine. But if he wants to do it, he has a buffer.
Type of indulgence?
Let it be so.
Does Ukraine lose something?
Ukraine has nothing to lose on this contract. Ukraine is interested in American investments. Therefore, if the Americans look for something, dig and extract something, it will be a plus. This document is simply not anticipated at the moment. All potential flaws have been eliminated.
What are the next steps? Do we sign and postpone it until the end of the war? Because it is hard to imagine how it will work under fire during an active war.
A fund is formally launched, which will include American and Ukrainian representatives. Perhaps the minimum capital for payment of wages will be lodged. And that's all. In the near future there will be no money in this fund. It will be a huge surprise if the money appears there in the near future. This means that nothing will happen. At the moment there are no ways to get money for this purpose. And without money, the fund cannot invest anywhere.
