From 2021, the Portal Nieruchomości-online.pl runs Cyclic measurement called “moody” – an indicator showing the condition of the secondary housing market in Poland. The data is collected in cooperation with real estate agents who assess the behavior of sellers and buyers every three months.
The first quarter of 2025 brought a significant improvement in moods – the indicator reached the level of 54.5 points, which means an increase of over 7 points compared to the previous quarter.
-At the end of 2024, the apartment was in quite minor moods-says Rafał Bieńkowski from real estate-online.pl. – In the first months of 2025, moods among market participants improved not only through New Year's plans and cyclical spring revival, but also to a large extent by announcement of the program first keys. There were still few details about the program at the time, but it was enough for the mood to bounce. However, this was optimistic with a great degree of caution – explains the expert.
When the market dies with uncertainty
Analysis of data from the mood man shows that in recent years the secondary market has experienced a real crisis only once – at the beginning of 2022, after a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Then the real estate sector practically froze. Poles refrained from making any decisions related to buying or selling. In the first quarter of 2022, the moodometer was 52 points – still slightly above the limit of optimism (50 points). However, in the following quarters the value dropped to about 40 points, clearly indicating the dominant pessimism. The apartment market for sale braked, while the rental market – powered by refugees from Ukraine – was experiencing an unprecedented boom.
Government programs as market stimulators
Over time, the market got used to the ongoing conflict behind the eastern border. At the beginning of 2023, the announcement of the Safe Credit 2 % program was enough for optimism to return with double strength. The moodometer grew systematically, Achieving a record 71 points in the third quarter of 2023, when the program officially started. Such a high reading could herald the market overheating. The first reduction in interest rates from 2020 also contributed to the improvement of moods.
When the peak of interest in a secure loan has passed. And its dimming began, the market temperature began to fall again. In 2024, in the absence of both the support program for buyers and further interest rate reductions, the moodometer fell from quarter to quarter.
The revival came only at the beginning of 2025, With the announcement of the new program, the first keys.
Emotions up to calculations
– It is clearly seen that the moods in the housing market are very susceptible to what is happening in the country and in the world. Every major decision of the government, a change in interest rates or anxieties abroad almost immediately translate into how people think about buying or selling an apartment. Hence the moods wavy from almost panic, through uncertainty, to enthusiasm-says Rafał Bieńkowski from real estate-online.pl.
The expert also emphasizes that the decision to buy or sell is not always due to a cool calculation or consultation with the adviser. Most potential customers do not follow statistical data or bank reports – They are based on what they will hear in the media or see in social media.
Customers are guided not only by analyzes, but also emotions and the overall atmosphere around the market. It often depends on this atmosphere whether the person interested in real estate decides to call about the announcement or only saves them to consider later.
Perspectives after the reduction of interest rates
May 7 this year The Monetary Policy Council decided to reduce interest rates by 50 base points – the first in autumn 2023. This decision on the one hand will reduce the burden of current borrowers, on the other, on the other, it will open the door to financing the purchase of real estate to people who have not had sufficient creditworthiness so far.
– The results of our mood test. Simply because of the provided fuses and limits, only some buyers will be able to qualify for subsidies. And even a small cut of the feet will probably convince some buyers to make a decision. That is why we expect that in the second quarter market moods will noticeably improve – forecasts Rafał Bieńkowski.
