Presidential elections 2025: How did the voting polls / an explanation for Antonescu's little score / which important candidate been accurately estimated
The race for the second place was provided correctly by polls. George Simion was also indicated as a winner, but the gold leader took more than any prediction.
George Simion obtained 41% of the votes on May 4. From the relevant opinion polls, published before the elections, no one approached the Estimations to the performance of the President Gold. The slightest error was 6 percentage points minus, while other polls underestimated Simion by 14-15 percentage points.
The closest: 35% compared to 41%
A comparative analysis carried out by the Atlasintel polling house presents the average error of the estimates presented by the last survey published by each polling house before the Sunday elections. The analysis takes into account the polls preceding voting, not the exit-pool studies on the day of the election.
Thus, for Simion the smallest error had the verifield survey from the end of March conducted at the command of Nicușor Dan-then Simion was rated with 35% chances, compared to 41% the final result.
The biggest error was at the last course survey, where Simion was listed at 26%, a 15 percentage error.
Nicușor Dan's score close to the estimates of most polls
As for the candidate ranked second, the independent Nicușor Dan, the errors in the polls were much smaller. The survey ordered by Nicușor Dan himself at the end of March (Verifiled) was given at 0.2 percentage points of the final score.
Also towards the end of March an avant-garde survey fixed at 21%, while other surveys in April overestimated it to 26.5%.
For Crin Antonescu, the PSD-PNL-UDMR candidate ranked 3rd with 20.1%, the final score was indicated in advance by several polls. The largest deviation was in the last ARA poll, conducted at the command of Antena 3, where Antonescu was ranked with 26.2%, an error in addition of 6.1 percentage points.
The other big error next to a candidate was found in the Sociopol polls for the independent candidate Victor Ponta. In the last Sociopol poll the chances of Ponta were overestimated with 9 percentage points: 22% compared to his final score of 13%.
A possible explanation for Antonescu's small score: PSD Electorate cannibalization
“The main reason why Crin Antonescu did not reach round 2 was the cannibalization of the PSD electorate”, considers Andrei Roman, the CEO of the Atlasintel Probe house.
“A considerable percentage of the PSD electorate finally opted for Simion and Victor Ponta. On the electoral map is apparently a demobilization of PSD structures in the territory,” he says.
“Against the background of the disputes between the other candidates, the perception that Simion will win the first round and as a result of the accusations launched following the photograph scandal, part of the PSD electorate tending to support Crin Antonescu migrated to George Simion,” says Atlasintel.
According to him, the “support wave for Simion increased on the day of the election in a way similar to what I saw in Călin Georgescu”.
How did the estimates of the great opinion polls show before the 1st round:
