Investments are one of the pillars of a prosperous economy. Public and private are important. Unfortunately, according to Credit Agricole (CA) economists, according to the GUS data Real investments of larger enterprises employing at least 50 people decreased in the fourth quarter of 2024 by 8.4 percent. per year. It is better than before, because in the third quarter the congress exceeded 10 percent, but a negative series was maintained.
Four quarters of declines in a row are behind us. “We believe that the low use of generating power remains an important factor limiting investment activity” – CA experts comment on about 77 percent for comparison, there were almost 81 percent before the pandemic explosion.
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“It means that Companies do not collide with a barrier in the form of a high degree of use of production capacity, which in the past was the main factor that prompts companies to increase investment expenditure” – they indicate.
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Credit Agricole
What next with investments?
The forecasts of Credit Agricole economists assume that in the following quarters of 2025 the real dynamics of the total enterprise investment will be:
- 4 percent in the first quarter
- 5.7 percent in the second quarter
- 6.5 percent in the third quarter
- 4 percent In the fourth quarter of 2025
“The increase in the dynamics of enterprises' investment will be favored by the effects of the low base from 2024, investments directed at increased performance, as well as the so -called The “pushed” effect related to increasing the investment of companies in response to higher public investments” – we read in the analysis of CA.
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The effect of “pushing” is the opposite of the effect of “pushing”, assuming that enterprise investments are often complementary to public investments, such as the construction of gas stations in response to the construction of the highway, etc.
“This is consistent with our total investment forecast, according to which they will increase by 7.9 percent in 2025 and by 7.3 percent in 2026 due to the increase of 1.5 % in 2024.” – economists forecast.
