ITC experts predict that Global trade can decrease by up to 7 %, and the gross domestic product around the world will drop by 0.7 percent.
In particular, developing countries will suffer. Pamela Coke-Hamilton, director of the International Trade Center, warns that the prolonged conflict can lead to dramatic decline in trade and initiate the domino effectwhich will affect the global economy. In the expert's opinion, the effects of this phenomenon for developing countries may be catastrophic.
Despite the short-term 90-day suspension of some duties, the newly applied tariffs remain a serious challenge. Beijing decided to raise his duties on American products to 125 percent, in response to the ordinance of President Donald Trump. American duties on Chinese goods increased to a record -breaking 145 percent, which in the opinion of ITC specialists additionally escalato commercial tensions between the largest economies of the world.
– If the escalation between China and the US is lasting, trade between these countries may fall by 80 percent, and Economic profits developed by countries developing in recent years will be under great threat Coke-Hamilton said.
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The expert also emphasized that the effects of introducing duties may be more harmful than withdrawal of foreign help, which is a key support for many economies during the transformation.
The ITC report, based on your own research, is a warning to decision makers. Experts, however, did not include in their analyzes of temporary suspension of some tariffs and weave of recent increases introduced by the US and China.
The International Trade Center is the only international organization within the UN system, which focuses only on trade in developing countries and countries in the transitional period.
