A foretaste of what can happen in Russia, when veterans begin to come back from the war-especially the convicts previously released-there was a case of Azamata-a 35-year-old who in 2021 was sentenced to 9 years in prison for the murder of his wife. He served 3 years, after which he was sent to the front in exchange for pardon. When he served 6 months, he returned to the country and stabbed his partner with a knife. He was sentenced to 19 years in prison this time. There were more similar cases. According to the calculations of the Independent Russian Information Agency, almost 500 civilians have become victims of veterans returning from fighting in Ukraine. It is estimated that 242 people were to die of this.
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Expert: Russia will record the influx of veterans
The data of the Russian Prison Service and Ukrainian intelligence services shows that from 2022 Russia recruited 120-180 thousand to fight in Ukraine. convicts. “As more and more of them will begin to be demobilized and come back home, Russia will record the influx of veterans … Bearing the psychological effects of the war,” says Reuters Mark Galeotti, a British Russian expert.
The fears concern not only the criminal past of some veterans and possible post -war trauma, but also economic realities. “Many of those who return to civil life will never have such generous salaries as they now receive, which will cause dissatisfaction,” writes Reuters in his analysis, based on the Kremlin sources.
According to Reuters informants – people from the Kremlin's circles – for Vladimir Putin, the mass return of the army from the war is a potential “risk of destabilization of society” and a threat to his political system. There may be a replay of the riots that occurred after the end of the war of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the late 1980s, when the returning veterans proposed a wave of organized crime. A foretaste of this was also the rebellion of the leader of the Wagner Group Jewgenija Prigożyna in June 2023.
One of the sources reported that the Kremlin, at Putin's request, already worked on solving the possible problem of returning veterans. Some of them promised prestigious careers, training and integration programs, positions in local government administration structures, etc. were offered. Officials in Moscow are still looking for ideas that the mass return will run stable.
