2025-08-10 12:00
publication
2025-08-10 12:00
The current duties imposed by the United States on India would slow down the growth of the country's real GDP by 0.3 percentage point in annual terms, and additional tariffs that will come into force on 27 August by another 0.3 percentage point – Goldman Sachs analysts believe.
US President Donald Trump on Wednesday signed an executive regulation imposing an additional 25 % from August 27. duties on the import of goods from India. This will increase the customs rate to this country to 50 percent. The imposition of duties – as explained in the regulation – results from the continuation of India's purchases of energy from Russia.
Goldman Sachs estimates that after taking into account all exclusions that were included in the regulation, the total effective US customs rate on India imports will be about 32 percentage points. The analysts of the Investment Bank pointed out that the US is responsible for about 4 percent. Indian import of oil, and Russia – for a third in 2025.
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They estimated that the duties previously announced by Trump could have a direct impact on the slowdown in the growth of the real GDP of India by approx. 0.3 percentage points. in an annual basis. The newly announced duties – according to Goldman Sachs – mean another slowdown by 0.3 percentage points. Thus, if the duties come into force, the growth of the real GDP of India can slow down by a total of 0.6 points. percent
They pointed out that there are also indirect effects on the growth of real GDP of India. They result – as they explained – from commercial uncertainty. Analysts see the risk for their previous growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, but they do not change them yet. As they explain, this is due to a three -week negotiating window before the new tariffs entered into force.
The Trump administration previously carried out five rounds of commercial negotiations with India; However, these conversations stuck in a deadline, because the disputed issue that failed to solve is access to the Indian agricultural products market. Trump's decree was published a few hours after the visit of the envoy of President Steve Witkoff in Moscow. Trump previously threatened that if Russia did not agree to the “ending of killing”, he would apply secondary duties on your buying Russian energy raw materials.
Since Russia, India's full -size invasion of Ukraine has become one of the greatest importers of Russian oil. According to the Reuters agency, in 2025 they increased the import of this raw material by 1 percent. Compared to 2024 and bring an average of 1.75 million barrels a day. Russia became the main source of raw material for India, despite the fact that before the war there was only a fraction of deliveries to this country. (PAP)
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