Help, however, does not disappear – the money that was supposed to power the program will be redirected to local governments for the development of social construction. So it's just a change in residential support strategy. The question – how will the situation on the real estate market affect.
Experts are unlikely to expect a government to propose in the near future, based on payments for loans. The more that it is not yet known who will be responsible for housing policy within the new superresort.
– From the point of view of the market sector, two issues seem key in the medium -term perspective: how the government intends to shape the tax policy towards apartment owners, including in particular whether and how it intends to limit – or not – investing by Poles in apartments for rent and how the government intends to solve the issue of fees from ETS2, i.e. When, and to what extent, these fees will charge the owners of apartments and housesbut also whether and what funds will be directed to the housing sector to improve the energy parameters of existing resources – asks Kazimierz Kirejczyk, senior strategy advisor, Housing Sector, JLL.
He points out that it would be not very professional comparing the effects of the Safe Credit program in one breath – which came into force half a year after its announcement by the government and strongly stimulated housing construction, also in smaller towns where the market for cash buyers is very weak, with a non -existent loan program for zero/first keys, in which Donald Tusk's announcement in February 2023, In July 2025, it took 2 years and four months to not be able to do the program.
– The main allegation against the BK2 program is rather that he “burned out” too much, while the second program turned out to be a complete “misfire” – sums up Kazimierz Kirejczyk.
Housing programs with election sausage
Piotr Romanowicz, CEO of Rent – real estate does not hide that for many years the topic of housing in our country has become very hot during the election period. As always, various “miracle” proposals for solving a housing problem in our country and support in the form of various housing programs. These programs do not bring lasting results, because they lack a strategic foundation.
– The current situation in the field of government housing programs reveals deep deficiencies in a long -term approach to housing policy in Poland – says the expert. – Although the Safe Credit program 2 percent He was intensively promoted and actually stimulated purchasing activity on the market, it was essentially a short -term solution that artificially inflated demand, without real supply support. As a result, he led to a rapid increase in real estate prices, especially in the largest cities, which ultimately harmed many potential buyers who were excluded from the market – he adds.
According to the expert, the Safe Credit program 2 percent It was not a system reform, but an electoral intervention – ad hoc and expensive for the budget. Instead of solving the problem of the availability of apartments, he deepened the market imbalance and increased inflation pressure on the real estate market. This diagnosis is confirmed not only by analyzes, but also market data: in some segments prices increased by several percent in a few months, which destroyed the effects of subsidies for many families.
– The first keys program was to be his successor, but already at the stage of the announcement he lacked credibility and specifics – regrets Piotr Romanowicz. – The complexity of the conditions, the illegibility of the message and the lack of political decisions led to a situation in which neither the banking sector nor potential beneficiaries knew what they were really dealing with. Effect? Zero transmission to the real market and growing social disappointment – he adds.
Apartment for start. There is a lack of long -term strategy
What is currently lacking on the Polish residential market is not another ad hoc programs. – We need a long -term, stable and predictable strategy for all market participants, which will be resistant to political changes and be based on data analysis, not polls – says Piotr Romanowicz.
In his opinion, this strategy should be based primarily on stimulating supply by asking investment and planning procedures and release of land in the resources of the Treasury and communes. Without this, even the best programs only conducive to price increases.
One of its pillars – as she points out – should be the development of social and municipal construction, but without the possibility of buying apartments. These investments will provide a lower rent and a real alternative for people who do not qualify for loans and do not participate in the premium market segments. This strategy should be based on the cooperation of government, local governments and the private sector.
