What will they look like in Poland in 10 years? Forecasts and analyzes
Predicting how the prices of apartments will be formed in the next decade is an extremely difficult challenge, burdened with a high risk of error. We must clearly emphasize that the presented values are only assumptions, not certain forecasts. Nevertheless, based on historical price patterns, available statistics and contemporary determinants affecting the real estate sector, as well as using the potential of current analytical tools, we can try to outline the image of the future on the housing market.
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The analysis of the last decade (2015-2025) shows an impressive price increase. In Warsaw, the average price per sq m from the secondary market increased with an average of 8.3 thousand. PLN in March 2015 to 17,000 PLN 024 in the same month 2025 – it is over 104 percent. growth! Data, from the analysis of the Morizon-Gratka group, clearly indicate a long-term upward trend.
Key factors affecting the future of the market
Ant predicting housing prices requires taking into account the complex network of mutually related variables. The demographic structure of a society that gradually ages, Along with the dynamics of migration movements within the country, it is a fundamental factor shaping demand in various regions.
It is equally important general economic situation of the countryexpressed through the pace of economic growth, unemployment rates and inflation levels that directly translate into the purchasing power of potential buyers.
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You can't miss it either the role of the state and its housing policy, including various support programs and tax breaks that can significantly stimulate the market. The growing significance also has a growing importance construction costs, which consist of both the prices of building materials and employees' salaries, which finally affect the overall cost of the development of development investments.
The last, but no less important factor are interest rates, which determine the availability and cost of mortgage loans, and thus the real ability of Poles to finance the purchase of their own apartment.
What do experts predict?
-Forecasting the price levels of apartments in the perspective of a year or two is not easy, and in the case of a decade it is a real divination from coffee grounds-says Marcin Drogomirecki, a real estate expert of the Morizon-Gratka group. – The experience of the last only a few years, during which we were dealing with a global pandemic, an outbreak of war just behind our eastern border, zero or even negative interest rate of bank deposits, once symbolic, and then several percent inflation, prove that – according to the old saying – only taxes and death are certain. But if you forget about what is unpredictable, one could be tempted to the thesis that Flats prices will rise. If? This, in relation to both individual cities and their districts, may look very different – he adds.
The expert also emphasizes that In the prestigious commonly desirable locations, the rates will grow faster, making them enclaves of wealth, The place of living in people with the highest material status, which will certainly come in Poland.
– The lower price increase will include the locations inhabited by the so -called middle classand the least will get apart apartments, which will most likely be increasingly included in the premises in blocks of the PRL years-he says.
And sums up: – trying to predict the future only based on historical data, Flats prices for ten years may be higher – Depending on a number of factors, such as location, building condition, standard of the premises, and perhaps access to greenery, water, clean air or shadow, after all, the climate changes – from several dozen to even over 100 percent. – explains the expert.
Forecast prices at 2035.
Based on artificial intelligence algorithms, analyzing historical increases, recent price fluctuations, macroeconomic factors and data from the gratka.pl website, forecasted prices for a square meter in 2035 may look as follows:
- Warsaw: 32–35 thousand PLN per sq m.
- Krakow: 28-30.5 thousand PLN per sq m.
- Gdańsk: PLN 27.5-30 thousand per sq.
- Wrocław: 24.5-27 thousand PLN per sq m.
- Poznań: 21–23.5 thousand PLN per sq m.
- Lublin: 19.5-21 thousand PLN per sq m.
- Szczecin: 18.5-20.5 thousand PLN per sq m.
- Katowice: 18-20 thousand PLN per sq m.
- Bydgoszcz: 16-17.5 thousand PLN per sq m.
- Łódź: 15-17 thousand PLN per sq m.
Applications with caution
It should be remembered that all long -term forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty. Unforeseen events – economic crises, drastic political or economic changes – can fundamentally affect the real estate market.
Despite this, analyzing the current trends, it can be assumed that the prices of apartments in Poland will continue to grow in the next 10 years, although the growth rate may vary depending on the region and local conditions.
Both investors and people planning to buy real estate should closely track the changing market conditions and adapt their decisions to the current situation.
The material was created in cooperation with The Morizon Gratka group.
