We are threatened with the third front? These will be the consequences of the growing escalation of China vs Taiwan
This incident is the largest in eight months and It fits into the growing pressure of Beijing for a 23-million, democratic Taiwan.
The Chinese demonstration of strength took place just a day after passing through the Strait of the British patrol of HMS Spey. London emphasized that he implemented the right to the freedom of navigation resulting from the UN Convention on Maritime Law, while Beijing accused the United Kingdom of “intentional fueling of tension” and announced “an effective answer”.
The extraordinary number of picked machines-from J-16 fighters to early warning aircraft KJ-500-was probably calculated A signal to scare off subsequent participants of the “free sailing” mission. In addition, she was supposed to tire the Taiwanese anti -aircraft defense.
China is starting to overdo it
Although the rhetoric of China focuses on the “internalization” of the Taiwan's problem, the rate goes far beyond the policy of sovereignty. Nearly 90 percent are created on the island. the most advanced semiconductorsand the Taiwanese Strait itself is one of the most important trade routes, through which about 40 percent flows. global container movement.
The Economics & Peace Institute calculates that The full -frame conflict initiated by China could reduce global GDP by $ 10 trillion.and the limited sea cordon itself would cost the world $ 2.7 trillion.
The risk is not abstract. BCA Research analysts increase the probability of war to 35 percent. And they warn that in the extreme scenario the S&P 500 index could fall by 40 percent. Last Friday, information about possible new US restrictions on Chinese chip factories immediately caused a decrease in TSMC quotations and other integrated circuits manufacturers, showing how a small spark can translate into capital stress in the technology sector.
Any crisis in the strait would immediately hit the availability of consumer electronics, car systems, artificial intelligence or 5G infrastructure. According to Resilinc, blockage It would have a butterfly effect comparable to Covid-19 pandemic – Everywhere alternative sources of the most precise logical systems.
Beijing also has a lot to lose
Beijing himself would pay an equally high price. The Australian Institute of International Affairs survey shows that the interruption of supply chains, the outflow of foreign capital and the logical leap of the risk bonus would undermine the long -term strategy “Made in China 2025”, and in a short period they could lead to the contraction of Chinese GDP by up to 8 percent.
The world still feels the effects of two parallel crises. Russian aggression caused a record increase in cereal and energy prices, while the exchange of blows between Israel and Iran conquered the prices of Brent barrels and raised concerns about the patency of the Strait of the Ormus, through which almost a third of oil transported by sea.
Any additional escalation could push the inflation back to two -digit levels and reduce central banks maneuverswhich have just begun to signal interest rates.
There is also a risk of escaping portfolio capital for Taiwan. Taiex quotations, which recently supported speculation with an imminent reduction in the fed's feet, may lose the umbrella “predictable macroeconomics” and get under the wave of sale if the real probability of blockade increased. Analysts already indicate that Each subsequent header about Chinese maneuvers is lifting the variability of the insurance cost sea supplies and temporarily conquers the prices of freight.
The latest signal sent by Beijing is not just a regional gesture of strength. It is a reminder that the global security system can at any time gain a third conflict on a scale that turns the markets of raw materials, semiconductors and financial.
