Do Americans want to resuscitate Nord Stream? Conflict for Russian gas
Damaged, licensed and insolvent: Nord Stream 2 seems to belong to the past. However, this picture is deceptive. Gas pipeline worth $ 11 billion [ok. 41 mld zł] At the bottom of the Baltic Sea, belonging to the Russian state company Gazprom, once again became the center of a geopolitical struggle for powerwhich goes far beyond Germany.
It is possible to restart the gas pipeline, but also about what will happen to Russian gas in Europe – And who will defend his interests. On one side is US President Donald Trump with his opaque plans, on the other a determined European Commission and the German government, which fights against the re -opening of the gas pipeline.
The European Commission now wants to end the rope dragging this. The plan presented on Tuesday aims to suspend the imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027. At the same time, the end of Nord Stream 2 is to be sealed with new sanctions. But can the commission actually actually End the dispute between the main powers about Nord Stream 2 and Russian gas?
If the chairwoman of the Ursula von der Leyen committee, he puts the planned sanctions against the Nord Stream gas pipeline are to deter investors. “There is no return to the past,” she emphasized. If all EU Member States agree, EU companies will no longer be able to conduct direct or indirect interests with Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2.
The European Commission believes that Sanctions are necessary, even though gas does not flow through Nord Stream 1 and 2 anyway. Russia initially suspended deliveries by Nord Stream 1 during the war against Ukraine, and the German government no longer issued an operational license for Nord Stream 2. The pipelines were later damaged as a result of an attack using explosives.
Recently, however, there has been speculation about whether the US government under Trump is negotiating own peace agreement with Russia regarding Ukraine. This could also allow American investors to get involved in Nord Stream 2. The idea that behind it is: The US would earn as an intermediary in Russian gas trade. Russia would regain indirect access to the European market and could earn billions on the sale of gas. So far, Trump was silent about whether he was supporting the resumption of gas transport.
The European Commission wants to warn such considerations with the proposed ban on transactions and scare away investors. They could then buy Nord Stream 2, but – depending on how sanctions are formulated – they could no longer do business with Europeans.
However, this plan may not be a novel – because of the will of the USA. Experts are afraid that US President Trump can simply ignore any EU sanctions And pave investors the way to continue the construction of the Nord Stream gas pipeline.
“Sanctions cost us a lot of money”
One of the people counting on great profit is American investor Stephen Lynch. This entrepreneur has experience in business with Russia and is considered a supporter of Trump. Already last year he showed interest in buying a gas pipelineif it were sold at auction as part of the bankruptcy proceedings in Switzerland.
According to media reports, Lynch has already submitted an application to the US government for release from sanctions. This is due to the fact that Nord Stream 2 is currently subject to strict sanctions in the USA. Has the application been approved? It is not known. We are still waiting for the official statement of the American Treasury Departmentjust like the specific response of the State Department.
Lynch himself and his company Monte Valle are also silent in this key issue. Not only in this matter: the investor does not want to answer, Can planned EU sanctions affect his purchase. Only one thing is of course: as a US citizen, Lynch is not subject to EU law – at least as long as he conducts his activities outside Europe.
But what position does the State Department take in all this? Does he stick to his previous sanctions against Nord Stream 2? And how does Washington perceive planned EU sanctions? Will the United States themselves impose further sanctions on Russia?
Asked by “Die Welt” the spokesman for the US Department of State avoided an answer. Instead, he only referred to the fact that The US is still focusing on achieving a permanent suspension of weapons and negotiating a lasting room. “President Trump remains involved in the end of killing,” the spokesman wrote back. He wants to give diplomacy a chance – in the center of this effort is to support a diplomatic solution.
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin during a press conference in Helsinki, July 16, 2018.
In terms of sanctions, the Department of State Department simply states: “The president made it clear that We have a number of funds at our disposal if it comes to the conclusion that Putin is not interested in negotiations'
The spokesman leaves the issue open whether the US President Trump supports the involvement of American investors in Nord Stream 2 and whether he will join the planned EU sanctions against Russia. During the recent G7 summit in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, Trump only emphasized: “Do not forget that sanctions cost us a lot of money. When I put sanctions on a country, it costs a lot of money.”
Europeans have something to fear
It is this lack of clarity that causes Nervousness in Brussels and Berlin. Experts, such as the Heiko Lohmann gas market analyst, therefore doubt that the EU sanctions proposed by the Commission would be able to dissuade Trump from his own plans related to Russia and Nord Stream 2.
– If US President Donald Trump actually allows Stephen Lynch to take over Nord Stream and endure sanctions against Russian entities in this matter, It will probably break the planned EU sanctions to shreds. For me, this is primarily a symbolic policy – says Lohmann asked by “Die Welt”.
The German Ministry of Economy and Energy is calm. In response to the question “Die Welt” a spokeswoman said that the government is currently analyzing the commission's request and that The assessment can be made only after the specific funds are made available. Basically, the ministry is in favor of accepting the package as soon as possible.
And what will happen if investors from the US, however, want to buy? The ministry points out that no certification process is required. Speculation would therefore be unnecessary, he states concisely. When asked again about the operating options of the ministry, the spokeswoman wrote that the ministry does not know about any investor or buyer. In fact The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is not certifiedand therefore its operation is not even legally allowed. This means that it cannot be launched without the consent of the ministry and the Federal Network Agency.
What's more: not everyone in the US dream of Russian gas, convinces Switlan Romanko, a lawyer specializing in environmental matters. Together with his Ukrainian NGO “Razom at Stand” is involved in the position of an end to the global dependence on Russian fossil fuels.
Switłana Romanko, founder of the Razom organizations at Stand. Brussels, September 27, 2022
In an interview with “Die Welt” Romanko emphasizes: – Part of the United States and their energy industry have a strong interest in maintaining Russian gas outside Europe, not only to increase their own LNG exports, but also because the restoration of gas pipelines would mean significant profits for Gazprom, which would be directly lost by the industry in the USA.
“Russia intentionally uses speculation”
However, on the Russian side, these arguments are apparently not accepted. At the end of March, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated on state television that Russia and the USA will talk about Nord Stream. According to Lavrov, “normal energy supply for Europe” is not only in the interest of the US and Russia. It will be interesting to see “will the Americans use their influence on Europe and force it to stop rejecting Russian gas.”
Martin Vladimir, an energy expert at the Democracy Research Center in Sofia, however, he does not see the possibility of concluding a peace agreement between Trump and Russia, also about Nord Stream 2. – I think it is an illusion in the USA, especially in the Trump family. Russia intentionally uses speculation about a possible agreement with the USA on Nord Stream 2 as a subversive strategy to introduce confusion and deepen the division in Europe in the matter of Russian gas – he says.
The more important it is for the EU to demonstrate Unity between Member States regarding sanctions against Nord Stream 2 And she shaped sanctions in such a way that they actually work. Details are also important
– these cannot be only symbolic sanctions against Nord Stream 2. The goal must be specific companies without which the gas pipeline cannot function. For example, compressor stations or companies that support them – demands Vladimir. These stations are used to increase gas pressure in gas pipelines to transport it over long distances. So far, however, the commission's project remains unclear. There are no specific names and resources.
The plan of the European Commission may bring more strength. He proposes gradual ban on importing Russian gas to the European Union. As planned, from next year companies will not be able to conclude new contracts for the supply of Russian gas. This applies to short -term purchases of Russian liquefied natural gas, the so -called spot purchases. In addition, the Commission also wants to prohibit gas imports from Russia under existing long -term delivery contracts from January 1, 2028.
Romano's lawyer sees one main advantage in this. She believes that if the Commission implements the Repower-EU action plan-including the law to gradually become independent of Russian gas-and combines it with sanctions, This can permanently stop Russian gas in Europe.
-In contrast to sanctions, legislation under repower-EU is permanent. If Russian gas is legally excluded from the EU market, it will remain outside. It would also mean the end of Nord Stream 2 – says the expert.
It is still unclear whether the necessary majority of EU countries – 15 of 27 – will agree to the commission's proposal regarding the ban on the import of Russian gas and what will happen to planned sanctions in connection with Nord Stream 2. The upcoming weeks will decide whether the EU is ready to wrest on the USA regarding Nord Stream 2.
