According to Donald Trump, who talked to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is to stop purchasing Russian oil in exchange for the abolition of American tariffs imposed on this country. Kremlin officials are now talking about a similar scenario, according to Reuters. The Russian government is preparing for a one-third drop in oil exports to India and a budget deficit of 10 trillion rubles (approx. PLN 470 billion at the current exchange rate).
According to a Reuters source, oil and gas revenues may fall by 18 percent this year. compared to the plan previously established by the Kremlin, and total revenues may decrease by 6% instead of the planned increase. As a result, the “hole” in the treasury may exceed the plan by 2-2.5 times and reach 8-10 trillion rublesi.e. 3.5-4.4 percent. GDP (instead of PLN 3.8 trillion, or 1.6% of GDP).
“The budget situation is deteriorating rapidly. Revenues will be lower and expenses will be higher,” the informant said. And this is only the beginning of the Kremlin's problems when it comes to the “leaky” treasury.
The estimates are based on the assumption that India will reduce its purchases of Russian oil by 30 percent this year. — and expenses will exceed the assumptions of the adopted plan by 4.1-8.4 percent.
The Russian oil tanker Marinera, previously known as Bella 1, was seized by American forces on January 7, 2026 for violating sanctions (illustrative photo)Peter Summers/Stringer/Getty Images
“The budget contains unrealistic numbers regarding the reduction of defense and security spending,” the Reuters source explained. According to him, the increase in the budget deficit is not yet a “catastrophe”, and in order to finance it, the Russian Ministry of Finance will take on more debt and may start reducing non-military spending.
In January 2026, oil and gas revenues to the Russian state treasury halved compared to January 2025. — up to 393 billion rubles (PLN 18,420 million, calculated at the current exchange rate). In nominal terms, their value was the lowest in 5 years, and in relative terms – 2%. GDP – the worst in several decades of Vladimir Putin's rule.
Russia has 4.1 trillion rubles (approx. PLN 190 billion at the current exchange rate) in reserves in the National Welfare Fund (FNB), which the authorities can use to finance the budget deficit. As Reuters writes, analysts estimate that at the current rate of decline in income reserves will be significantly depleted within the year.
Russia's treasury may become empty
According to estimates by analysts of the Russian investment company Alfa-Invest, if the current prices of Russian oil and the ruble exchange rate are maintained, the Russian federal budget may lose approximately 3 trillion rubles (approx. PLN 140 billion) within a year. This means that three-quarters of the fund's remaining assets may be devoted to filling the “hole”. At current oil prices, FNB's remaining cash will be fully spent by early 2027, according to Gazprombank estimates.
It is said that when faced with problems, Russia can turn to cooperation with China. According to a Reuters source, the Russian Ministry of Finance plans to freeze FNB spending on investment projects, including those that have been promised financing.
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“The position of the Russian Ministry of Finance and everyone else is not to allocate any more money from FNB. Even in the case of projects that were publicly discussed, such as aviation, microelectronics, Russian Railways, which included money from FNB,” said the source. The exception is Gazprom's gas processing project in Ust-Luga.
Last year, the federal budget deficit reached 5.7 trillion rubles (approx. PLN 270 billion) and was five times higher than the original plan. This year, the Russian Ministry of Finance hoped to reduce it to 3.8 trillion rubles (approx. PLN 180 billion) by increasing VAT and taxes for small businesses.
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