publication
2025-06-11 14:30
May CPI statistics for the United States turned out to be slightly lower than the expectations of most economists. Although inflation is no longer such a problem as 2-3 years ago, the costs of living in America are still growing faster than the federal reserve wished.
In May 2025, CPI inflation in the USA reached 2.4% – informed the work statistics office (BLS). It was the 51st Amm in a row, in which CPI inflation exceeded the 2 % target of the federal reserve. It was also a slightly higher reading than in April, when American CPI inflation reached the lowest level in over 4 years and amounted to 2.3%.
The market consensus told to expect a reading of 2.5%. On the other hand, the Fed's prognostic model from Cleveland indicated that the May CPI inflation in the US was 2.40% per annum and 0.13% per month. Therefore, today's reading from BLS turned out to be slightly lower than the market consensus and it is difficult to consider it as an extraordinary surprise.
Relative to April, the price index of consumer goods rose by 0.1% after an increase of 0.2% in April and a decrease of 0.05% MDM recorded in March, as well as after increasing by 0.2% MDM in February and an increase by as much as 0.5% MDM in January. In a monthly terms, economists expected CPI increase by 0.2%. The average monthly increase in the American CPI for the previous 6 months was 0.22%. When maintaining this pace for the next 12 months, the annual CPI inflation in the USA for a year would be 2.63% and would still exceed the 2% goal of the Fed.
The so -called Base inflation – i.e. the price indicator of consumer goods after switching off food, fuels and energy. The base CPI in May 2025 amounted to 0.1% MDM and 2.8% yard. The annual dynamics of this indicator was the same as in the previous two months, although the analysts expected it to increase to 2.9%. This is still the lowest of the base inflation in the US since March 2021, but still quite distant from the 2 % target.
A positive surprise, however, is the monthly dynamics of base inflation, which amounted to only 0.1% MDM. Here, an increase was expected by 0.3% MDM by an increase by 0.2% in April.
Inflation has dropped, but it may increase
Behind the decrease in CPI inflation in the United States in recent months, there have been lower fuel prices. In May, gasoline got cheaper for the fourth month in a row (this time by 2.6%) and is already 12% cheaper than former a year ago. Energy began to grow faster: network gas was 15.3% more expensive in May than last year, and electricity prices went up by 4.5% yard.
It was also not possible to stop the price of service prices too rapidly. Services excluding energy supply were on average 3.6% more expensive than a year ago. Including the costs of providing a roof over the head (shelter) increased by 3.9% yard, and medical services have become more expensive by 3.0%.
Low prices were noted in the case of industrial goods, which, however, may soon change due to the introduction of high import duties by President Donald Trump. These tariffs came into force from April and their minimum amount is 10%.
Import duties are essentially a tax imposed on consumers, although importers pay him in a direct sense. However, they transfer duties to the final recipients, which in the coming months will probably lead to the increase in prices not only of import goods, but also their domestic substitutes.
