How can the elections in Romania influence the European policy. Expert: “It will be an East-European block consisting of Hungary, Slovakia and Romania”
Professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark and expert in the ex-Soviet space, Alexander J. Motyl believes that a victory of George Simion can lead to the reconfiguration of European politics. A similar approach also has the international relations expert Laurențiu Pleșca.
George Simion will take place in round 2 with Nicușor Dan PHOTO Facebook
Alexander J. Motyl, historian and expert in Ukraine, Russia and USSR, claims that a victory of George Simion in the presidential elections could change the future of the EU and NATO.
“If on May 18, the gold candidate will win the elections, Russia will certainly celebrate its victory, and the Kremlin will radically increase all the efforts to strengthen its power, both to Simion and his party, in all respects: financially, as propaganda, political, diplomatic, but also on the spy side.said Professor Alexander J. Motyl for “Adevărul”.
The reputed expert also explained what will be the consequences for Romania, Ukraine and Europe if George Simion will be a winner in the second round of the presidential elections.
“In the case of a victory by George Simion, it will be an East-European block consisting of Hungary, Slovakia and Romania that will be pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine and anti-EU. In the short term, this block could negatively affect the European support for Ukraine. In the long term, such an Eastern-European block could undermine and eventually destroy the European and NATO. It has irredentistic claims regarding Romania ”adds Alexander J. Motyl.
He also exposed his forecasts regarding the future of Romania, taking into account the current political climate:
“Simion will do everything possible to restructure the political and social system in Romania so that the right to be permanently the strongest, as Erdogan, Orban and Trump do. At the same time, as a large part of the population does not support Simion, the political polarization of the Romanian society is probably inevitable, which will not be good for democracy.”.
Licensed in history Summa Cum Laude at Colombia University in 1975, Alexander Motyl took his master in international relations and doctorate in political science at the same famous university in the United States.
The “truth” also spoke with the expert in international relations Laurentiu Pleșca about what impact each of the two candidates could have in the presidential elections in European foreign policy and in the US relationship.
PhD student of the doctoral school of political science of the University of Bucharest, Laurențiu Pleșca is a scientific researcher at the Romanian Center for Russian Studies and Assistant program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Its fields of expertise are the geopolitics of the Russian Federation in the Black Sea area, the internal and external policy of the ex-Soviet states, as well as the security of the European Union.
In the opinion of Laurentiu Pleșca, one of the most obvious risks of a victory of George Simion would be that Romania could adopt a position similar to other Eurosceptic European leaders, such as Viktor Orbán, or Robert Fico in Slovakia. For example, alignment to using the veto right to block important strategic decisions at the European Union level, including in terms of foreign and defense policy.
“For example, in the context of the Ukraine war, a president George Simion could use Romania's veto in the European Union Council to prevent additional military support packages. This approach would undermine the cohesion and unity of the European Union in the face of Russian aggression, at a time when Solidarity is to support Moscow. in the European Union, given the historical and cultural links between the two countries. Romania was a firm supporter of the European path of Moldova and tried to support the Chisinau government in carrying out the reforms for accession to the EU. Instead, George Simion has expressed more reluctant positions in the past compared to the integration of Moldova in the European Union or that Chisinau should not be economically supported by the Romanian state ”emphasizes Laurentiu Pleșca.
At the same time, whatever the result of the elections, the society would be polarized. A sovereign in the EU, however, could lead to Romania's isolation.
“Although George Simion declares himself an ally of the Magazin movement and supporter of President Trump, this type of ideological” alignment “does not automatically guarantee a better relationship with the United States. On the contrary, the US -Romania strategic partnership is built on continuity, predictability and attachment to western values, not on conjunctural political sympathies. In the context in which Romania has been trying for years to be included in the Visa Waiver program, Washington decisions will not be made only on the basis of technical criteria regarding the refusal rate, but also on the basis of the general evaluation of the political stability and the quality of the governance. A president like George Simion, perceived as an anti -European, conflict and inconsistent, can contribute to the postponement or blocking of this approach, not to solve this problem of Romania ”explains the expert in foreign politics.
On the other hand, Nicușor Dan would benefit from the support of the European liberal parties, which would guarantee a better relationship with the EU, the specialist believes.
