In previous estimates, the OECD assumed that the global economy would grow by 2.9 percent this year. In Wednesday's report, the organization adjusted this value to 2.8 percent, stating that such a result is realistic only if short-term disruptions are assumed. In such a scenario, the costs of energy raw materials would start to decline from the middle of this year, and in 2027 the growth rate would rebound to 3.1%.
The situation is much worse in the pessimistic variant. If the turmoil continued until 2027, this year's economic dynamics would drop to 2.1%, and next year only to 1.7%. Some countries would then have to face a recession, and energy prices and inflation rates would continue to rise.
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Disturbing forecasts for economic growth. The situation is most serious in Asia
“The economic impact of this conflict is likely to be felt for some time, even after it ends, given that it will take months to repair damaged infrastructure and transport lines,” the organization says in the report.
Experts expect the most serious consequences to occur in Asia, whose economies are heavily dependent on supplies from the Middle Eastern region. Developing countries and countries located on the Persian Gulf also face a difficult situation. These areas may be most affected by prolonged disruptions on commodity markets.
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The document shows that by May 21, natural gas prices in Asia increased by 80 percent, and on the European market by 43.2 percent. During the same period, the price of crude oil increased by 37.9 percent, while wheat appreciated by 6.6 percent. The OECD pointed out that rising inflation will reduce the purchasing power of households and weaken the condition of companies, and will additionally cause problems with the supply of goods.
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This is what the situation in Poland is supposed to look like
Experts estimate that the Polish economy will grow by 3 percent this year and 2.7 percent next year. The price increase in the first half of the year is expected to be temporary, but next year inflation in Poland will amount to 2.7%.
“The labor market [w Polsce] will remain stable with low unemployment. The economy remains exposed to risks resulting from large changes in energy prices and global demand, as well as from geopolitical threats in the region,” we read.
