Vitaly Portnikov is a specialist in international affairs and one of the most famous commentators and political journalists in Ukraine.
The Russian president will not be able to take full advantage of this festival of unprecedented generosity that was organized for him in the United States against the background of the war with Iran and attempts to save the balance on the oil market after the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.
Yes, Putin will receive billions of dollars from the sale of oil from tankers that have put to sea in advance.
However, he counted on much more.
There will be no more of this thanks to the actions of the Ukrainian armed forces. The attacks on the Russian refining sector began in the fall of 2023, but now their intensity has significantly increased.
Most importantly, the Ukrainians understood that they should attack not only refineries, but above all Russian oil ports.
These coordinated strikes lead the Russian president into a vicious circle.
Russia cannot sell oil freely, but at the same time it is unable to fully process the raw material for its own market because the refinery's processing capacity is insufficient. Therefore, we have to close the wells and use foreign currency reserves to buy fuel abroad.
War costs more than oil
Meanwhile, the war in the Middle East causes further economic complications and additionally destabilizes global commodity markets. As tension increases, prices of fuels, petroleum products and transport costs increase, which also directly affects the Russian economy.
The state must pay more both for imported components and for finished fuels imported from abroad. As a result, budget problems are increasing, the operating costs of enterprises are rising, and ordinary citizens are increasingly feeling the price increase. The economy is clearly starting to weaken, and the signs of the crisis are becoming more and more visible.
Oil tanks burning after the Ukrainian attack at the Ust-Luga oil terminal, Russia, March 27, 2026.DigitalGlobe/Getty Images
It is no accident that Foreign Affairs magazine states that the Ukrainian strikes had an effect that could not be achieved even by all Western sanctions put together.
Last year, the Kremlin's oil revenues fell by 24 percent. — this was the worst result since 2020. In January 2026, Russians earned twice less on oil sales than a year earlier. In March, however, according to Reuters, incomes were 52 percent lower compared to March 2025.
For the first time in all the years of full-scale war with Ukraine, Russia spent more on it than it earned on oil. That's why Putin had to call a special meeting and sharply scold the ministers for the decline in GDP.
Of course, he does not want to end the war and until now he has treated peace talks only as a way to reach an agreement with his American counterpart. But the problem isn't just about his will – it's all about his ability. If Russia runs out of money and conditions for social destabilization appear in the country, Putin will simply be forced to stop. Risking the stability of his own regime is clearly not in his interest.
In this way, 2026, thanks to Ukraine's efforts, will become a time of real pressure on Putin.
The article continues below the video
It is important that only Putin, not Trump, is caught in the vicious circle
Because when Trump, on the one hand, wants to quickly end the Russian war against Ukraine, and on the other hand, agrees to issue and then extend a license to sell Russian oil from “shadow fleet” tankers, in practice, with this decision, he saves the Russian oil infrastructure and creates conditions not for ending the war, but for its continuation.
And not only that, but also to support Iran.
Iran, aware of the possibility of such assistance, continues to blackmail Trump and blockade Hormuz. And Trump, wanting to somehow limit the impact of high oil prices on the results of the congressional elections, is again helping Putin in selling the raw material.
I really like Putin's vicious circle. Trump's vicious circle – much less so, because it becomes Putin's emergency exit, at least temporarily. And if you really want to force Putin to stop the war, Trump's “vicious circle” should be broken.
All the more so because it would also have an exclusively positive impact on the development of events in the Middle East.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
