Can PNL afford to sacrifice Ilie Bolojan? Analyst: “If they danced as the pesedists sing, it would be political suicide”
With an overwhelming majority, PSD voted to withdraw political support for Ilie Bolojan. The Social Democrats are asking the Liberals to appoint another prime minister. Therefore, the question arises: can the PNL leaders ditch the incumbent prime minister in order to please the coalition partners? The PNL variants are multiple, but the option of eliminating Ilie Bolojan seems to be the one to win, at least for now.
Ilia Bolojan. PHOTO: Inquam Photos
The liberals met on Tuesday, at 10:00 a.m., in a key meeting, after the PSD voted massively to withdraw political support for Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan. Inside the party, the signals are, for now, of support for the current prime minister, despite growing tensions in the ruling coalition.
In the end, the liberals unanimously adopted a resolution expressing their firm support for the continuation of the government under the leadership of Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan and for the completion of the undertaken reforms. The document qualifies PSD's decision to provoke a political crisis at a critical moment for Romania as an act of irresponsibility and an escape from responsibility towards the governing act, including for the major delays in the absorption of European funds. It also reconfirms that, if the PSD will move from declarations to the actual triggering of a political crisis, the PNL will no longer be part of a coalition with this political formation.
“The National Political Bureau of the National Liberal Party and the Parliamentary Groups of the PNL reaffirm their firm commitment to the continuation of the government and to the implementation of the reforms assumed before the Romanians, through the government program. The PNL expresses its firm support for the continuation of the government under the leadership of Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan and for the completion of the reforms assumed”it is stated in the text of the resolution.
Despite the unanimity, Ilie Bolojan continues to have challengers within the PNL. Apparently, they would like a compromise solution with the PSD, of course, without Ilie Bolojan. These talks would take place if the Social Democrats manage to topple the government through a motion of no confidence. Otherwise, the liberals seem to embrace the option of a minority government for the time being, alongside the USR and the UDMR.
“Bolojan has double confidence in the polls compared to the party he leads”
Although he publicly sent statements of support to Bolojan, the president of CJ Ilfov, Hubert Thuma is the main supporter of starting new negotiations with the social democrats. Senator Nicoleta Pauliuc, first vice-president of PNL and close to Thuma, requested the adoption of a resolution by which PNL could not discuss and negotiate with AUR, SOS Romania, POT. His bid was rejected, with the Liberals needing parliamentary support to keep their government alive. Among Bolojan's challengers is the mayor of Cluj, Emil Boc, who declared on Tuesday that “PNL should not be USR's puppy”. And Alina Gorghiu, the former president of the party, spoke out against Bolojan, claiming that “PNL is not on the wave, we are at 11-12%”.
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However, political analyst George Rîpă explains, an anti-Bolojan current within the PNL is impossible to coagulate at this moment. The arguments are not related to emotion, but to electoral pragmatism, given that Bolojan's support rate has increased in recent days thanks to the attacks from the PSD.
“I don't think it is possible to create an anti-Bolojan majority in the National Liberal Party. The arguments are not of an emotional nature, but strictly electoral: Bolojan is the only parliamentary party leader who has double confidence in the polls compared to the party he leads. The PNL is dependent on his image. He is currently benefiting from PSD's wrong strategy. The smear campaign had the opposite effect, it succeeded in victimizing him and propelling him as the main opponent, people forget non-achievements and fall in line behind him”, explained George Rîpa, for “Adevărul”.
“If they helped remove Bolojan, the PNL would collapse to 10%”
The political analyst points out that the social democrats entered a race with many unknowns, and an exit from the government would bring them catastrophic losses in the territory. At the same time, the PNL can simply witness the attrition of coalition partners without making sudden moves.
“The PNL has many options, and the most inspired one would be to watch from the sidelines without intervening. Those from the PSD have entered a game that they do not control. If they leave the government, they risk losing almost instantly half of the mayors, who will flee to AUR. The risk for the PSD is that a more flamboyant political figure, like Victor Ponta, will create a hinge party of the UNPR type in which to attract parliamentarians. So the PNL really does not have to do nothing, might as well give up TV for a while' says the political analyst.
Therefore, the pressure is solely on PSD's shoulders, while PNL only needs to avoid missteps. A betrayal of Ilie Bolojan from within his own party would mean a political and electoral disaster for the liberals.
“The PNL is in an unexpectedly good position today, they control the game. On the other hand, if the PNL leaders helped to oust Bolojan, the party would probably collapse around the 10% share. The PNL is still carrying the electoral burden of the political concubinage of the past, a compromise that the population rejected in the 2024 elections. If they were to dance now as the pesedists sing to them, the PNL would broadcast to the public the message that it is an annex of the PSD, and that would be political suicide”, explained George Rîpa.
