Washington's decision is intended to reduce record oil prices, which skyrocketed after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz. The exemption from sanctions is valid until April 11 and covers cargo shipped before March 12.
Thanks to this, Russia can liquidate approximately 130 million barrels of oil contained in tankers. According to analysts, this should help cool down prices, which approached $120 on Monday. per barrel – informs Anna Gwozdowska from the Polish Press Agency.
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India is a key beneficiary
In addition to the general easing of sanctions, The US granted 30 days of relief to Indian refineries. According to Reuters, it was India that was seeking the opportunity to increase purchases of Russian oil. This country imports approximately 89 percent. consumed raw materiala. Supplies from Russia were severely limited after Donald Trump imposed a 25% cut. customs duties. Now, according to the Guardian, India is buying “millions of barrels a day” again.
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Short-term respite for Moscow
Neave-Howes estimates that thanks to the easing of sanctions, Russia will not have to reduce production as quickly as previously forecast. However, this wreath may end quickly.
— After the expiry of American permits, Russia will again face a decline in demand, the need to cut production and provide discounts, the expert emphasizes.
Estimates of the Polish Economic Institute indicate that Oil export revenues in Russian GDP will fall to 4% in 2025, from 7.5%. in 2022
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Sanctions remain tough
Moscow is still the most sanctioned country in the world, with 24,387 restrictions in place, according to statbase.org. The European Union has so far adopted 19 packages, with a price ceiling of $51.9 for Russian oil. per barrel.
The Russian authorities hope for further lifting of sanctions, however US Western allies oppose expanding exemptions. G7 leaders were – according to Axios – appealing to President Trump to maintain a tough policy towards Russia. Emmanuel Macron stressed that the blockade of Hormuz “does not justify a change of position.”
Can oil prices be stabilized without Russia?
According to Neave-Howes, not necessarily. Russian oil will not cover the shortages after supplies from the Middle East are limited, and the US does not have sufficient production capacity.
— Even if Europe returned to purchasing Russian oil, which is unlikely, it would not solve the problem of high prices. It all depends on the duration of the conflict – says the expert.
