publication
2025-04-08 10:15
The repercussions of the World Trade War and the prospect of reducing the percentage table in the NBP meant that the profits of the entire first quarter squandered the profits of the previous four sessions. The euro exchange rate quickly reached the borders of PLN 4.30.
The global trade war has basically become a fact. On Thursday, the United States Government introduced projects import duties for all major trading partners. China responded with analogous duties on Friday. On Monday, President Trump threatened 50 % duties on the PRC. And on Tuesday there were leaks about the customs retort of the European Union in the USA.
In such a situation, the currencies of small and relatively open economies are exposed to strong turbulence resulting from the panic reactions of investors. In addition, the golden conference (or actually its ending) of the NBP Adam Glapiński, president of the NBP, who suggested a 100-point reduction in interest rates harmed to the golden.
This “Stupunkt Bomb” hit the zloty on Thursday. But only the global sale of risky assets raised Euro's quotations to the highest levels of 2025. On Tuesday at 9:50 the euro exchange rate was at the level of PLN 4.3013 and was 1.5 grosze higher than the Monday reference rate. However, yesterday the euro cost up to PLN 4.3047 and was the most expensive than November.
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– We generally assume that medium -term zloty may still lose value towards the euro and to the dollar, with relative stabilization of EUR/USD. The resistance band for EUR/PLN is around 4.33-4.36. Today at the opening, however, the zloty is slightly stronger, about 4.28 with a gaining euro to the dollar – wrote the analysts of Bank Millennium.
– It seems that the initial, violent market reaction is already behind us, hence investors will look for signals in the market environment that would promote at least to generate at least temporary reflection on heavily discounted investment assets – in turn, economists of PKO BP noted. -In the case of initiating such movement by global players, the EUR/PLN exchange rate has a chance to go down to the range of 4.25-4.28 -they added.
There is also a lot of variability on the most important currency pair in the world. EUR/USD exchange rate in the last days of summer in the range of 1.0780-1,1150, during the day making movements for which he would normally need a month or two. On Tuesday morning, the euro was valued at USD 1.0939.
In the domestic yard, it translated into a dollar after PLN 3.9233, so slightly cheaper than on Monday evening. Paradoxically, the USD/PLN exchange rate is now more stable than EUR/PLN. This is because the jumps of “eurodolara” are suppressed by the growing ratings of the Euro-gold pair.
This mechanism does not work on the Frank-gold steam, where on Tuesday in the morning the Helwecka currency was more than a penny, reaching almost PLN 4.57. The day before, Frank Swiss cost PLN 4.6150 in gusts and was the most expensive than November.
