Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of US land forces in Europe, commented on the outcome of the war game, organized by “Die Welt” and the Bundeswehr University in Hamburg, in which 16 former high-ranking officials from Germany and NATO, as well as parliamentarians and security experts took part.
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Ben Hodges: Königsberg perimeter neutralized within 24 hours
In the event of a Russian attack on a NATO country, the Königsberg Oblast would be neutralized within the first 24 hours, and Poland could immediately join forces against this exclave. – said General Ben Hodges in an interview with the German daily “Die Welt”.
In the adopted scenario, Russia occupies Mariampol in Lithuania, a city with a population of 35,000 located on the Suwałki Isthmus, under the pretext of an alleged humanitarian crisis in the Königsberg Oblast. According to the Wall Street Journal, NATO is reacting to decision-making paralysis when Russia takes over this strategic bridgehead.
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Gen. Hodges, commenting on the simulation result, said that this is the “absolute worst-case scenario” in which NATO is surprised and is not prepared to quickly transfer troops through the Suwałki Isthmus to Lithuania. “If we assume that Polish forces will not arrive, then forces from Germany or Americans from Poland would have to be transferred“- he added.
The former commander of US Army forces in Europe emphasized the importance of military mobility, including access to German rail infrastructure and cargo transport. He pointed out that It is not possible to clear all the tracks overnight to move an armored brigade within 24 hours.. At the same time, Hodges expressed his belief that in a crisis situation, German and Polish railways would react quickly.
Hodges emphasized that in the event of an attack, Lithuania would have to be ready to defend itself until support arrives, including: American or German military. However, he added that in the discussed scenario, Lithuania would quickly notice mobilization in Belarus, which would allow it, the German brigade stationed there, American forces and other units in the region to go into a state of heightened readiness.
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Ben Hodges shows how to deter Russia
According to the American general, Russia would not start by sending tanks, but by infiltrating special forces and trying to destabilize the country. In parallel – in his opinion – other hybrid activities could be carried out.
“If Russia attacks in any way, the most important thing will be to regain the initiative — not necessarily just at the point of impact. Deterrence means making Moscow realize that it would lose Königsberg very quickly. They need to know we are ready and capable of doing this,” Hodges said.
In the general's opinion, one can be almost certain that the Königsberg region would be neutralized within the first 24 hours of the conflict. “I do not mean the entry of ground troops, but the use of kinetic and non-kinetic means to neutralize Königsberg as a military factor,” he explained.
As General Hodges added, NATO has very detailed knowledge of the situation in the Königsberg region. “We know exactly what capabilities are there – air and naval forces, long-range weapons, air defense and so on. I imagine non-kinetic attacks, i.e. cyber warfare and electronic warfare, to disable as much as possible, especially air defense and long-range weapons, so that the Russian air force or navy cannot operate from there,” he stressed.
According to Hodges, the allies could inflict significant damage in the Königsberg region even without U.S. involvement. “For example, I can imagine that Poland would immediately join the attacks on Königsberg. There are also other places where pressure can be put on Russia, for example the Kola Peninsula in the Russian Far North, near Norway and Finland,” he noted.
