The far-right candidate is the favorite in the first round of Portugal's presidential election on Sunday, but the situation is likely to be different in three weeks' time

The campaign for the first round of Portugal's presidential election ends on Friday, with far-right candidate André Ventura the favorite in Sunday's polls, an unprecedented scenario, even though he has very little chance of winning in the second round, reports AFP.

Several polls suggest the president of the Chega (“Enough”) party will win the first round, but they differ on the name of the candidate he could face on February 8 in the round that will decide who will succeed incumbent conservative president Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.

Some polls predict a showdown between Ventura and Socialist Antonio José Seguro, others between Ventura and Luis Marques Mendes, the candidate supported by Prime Minister Luis Montenegro's right-wing government.

Among the 11 candidates (a record number), two other candidates have a chance to qualify for the second round: former reserve admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo, who led the vaccination campaign against Covid-19, and liberal MEP Joao Cotrim Figueiredo.

The “Enough” party has been growing for many years

Regardless of who Ventura's opponent will be, his entry into the second round of the election would be another important stage in his rapid rise after founding the Chega party in 2019.

Focused clearly on the personality of its leader, this formation obtained 22.8% of the votes and 60 deputies in the legislative elections last May, surpassing the Socialist Party as the main opposition party.

Although he clearly displays his ambition to lead Portugal – a role that rests with the government and not the president, who has no executive powers – Ventura ultimately decided to enter the presidential race to counter the threat posed by long-time poll favorite Admiral Gouveia e Melo, also adopting a highly critical discourse towards traditional political parties.

“André Ventura submitted his candidacy to keep his electorate. He could have the surprise of increasing it,” political scientist Antonio Costa Pinto of the University of Lisbon's Institute of Social Sciences (ICS) commented to France Presse.

Even if he is defeated in the second round, the result he will obtain in three weeks could “consolidate in the eyes of Portuguese society the idea of ​​electoral growth of the Chega party”, said this analyst, comparing this election to the French presidential elections of 2002, when Jean-Marie Le Pen, then president of the National Front, reached the second round, a first in France that year for the far-right party.

“But it's not so shocking because we're in the wave” of the far right advancing around the world, Antonio Costa Pinto added.

Complications for Montenegro's minority government

In Portugal, a strengthening of the far right would further complicate the situation for the minority government of Luis Montenegro, as it needs Chega to pass some of its programs

“The elections are open,” said the prime minister, who got personally involved in the campaign of Luis Marques Mendes, hoping to push him up in the polls, which place him on a par with Socialist Antonio José Seguro, also a candidate with a classic profile who has not stopped praising his experience and moderation.

Long-time favorite Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo suffered from a poor performance in televised debates and the difficulties of a campaign run without the support of a party.

Liberal Joao Cotrim Figueiredo, on the other hand, ran a campaign appreciated by observers, but his momentum was hampered by the controversy sparked by harassment allegations made by a former colleague.

The Portuguese head of state's power is mostly symbolic, but he can be called upon to play the role of arbiter in a crisis and has the right to dissolve Parliament to call legislative elections.