“Belarus is rapidly plunging into Russia’s economic orbit, and this dependence already covers key sectors – from energy and trade to finance, investment and the defense industry,” the report says.
Ukrainian intelligence officers write about Moscow's decisive dominance in Minsk's foreign trade.
“The lion’s share of Belarusian exports goes to the Russian market, another quarter goes to third countries, but using Russian infrastructure. Logistics access to ports, railway routes and tariffs are actually determined by the Russian side, which makes up to 90% of exports critically dependent on the Russian Federation,” explains SVR.
The service calls the situation in the defense industry of Belarus a “separate dimension of integration.”
“After the start of a full-scale war against Ukraine, Minsk increased production cooperation with the Russian military-industrial complex: at least 300 state-owned enterprises were reoriented to fulfill Russian defense contracts,” Ukrainian intelligence emphasized.
According to her data, financial integration and investment dependence of Belarus on the Russian Federation have increased.
For example, state banks have completely switched to “Russian payment solutions”, half of the currency basket of the National Bank of Belarus is the Russian ruble, and “changes in the Russian economy are instantly reflected in the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble.”
“Russia actually remains the only available source of external financing for Minsk. At the same time, Belarus’ public debt to the Russian Federation has reached about $8 billion, and Moscow has agreed to restructure payments for seven years, strengthening political and economic control. Taken together, these processes create a situation where the space for Minsk’s economic maneuver is significantly narrowed, and strategic decisions are determined exclusively by the Kremlin’s political and economic priorities,” the SVR concludes.
