publication
2025-11-13 10:00
The Polish economy has had another quarter of solid growth in gross domestic product. In the third quarter of 2025, the annual GDP dynamics accelerated to 3.7% and reached the highest value in three years. Economists, however, hope for more this year and in the next few quarters.
The Central Statistical Office reported that in the third quarter of 2025, Poland's gross domestic product was realistically (i.e. after taking into account inflation) 3.7% higher than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. This is the highest annual GDP growth since the third quarter of 2022.
It was also the third consecutive quarter of growth in the annual dynamics of Poland's GDP. This result matched economists' expectations well. The market consensus assumed that Poland's GDP would increase by 3.7% year on year on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. For comparison, in the second quarter the Polish economy grew at a rate of 3.3%, and in the first quarter GDP increased by 3.2%.
Therefore, we have a gently accelerating economic growth of 3-4%, which economists consider a pace consistent with the long-term potential of the Polish economy. It is worth paying attention to seasonally adjusted statistics, which for the second quarter in a row indicated a GDP growth of 0.8% compared to the previous quarter. Polish GDP has been growing at a similar pace since the beginning of 2025. In this approach, the annual dynamics of Poland's GDP also amounted to 3.7% y/y.
Since this was only a “preliminary estimate” for the third quarter, we do not know the exact structure behind this increase. In the previous quarters, the main driving force of Polish GDP was private consumption and the services sector. However, corporate investment and the construction and industrial sectors still performed poorly. The Central Statistical Office will publish more detailed data for the third quarter on December 1.
Things are going to be better in the next quarters
Most economists expect a faster growth rate of the Polish economy in the coming quarters. In October, Bank Pekao economists lowered this year's GDP growth forecast from 4.0% to 3.6%, while simultaneously raising the forecast for 2026 from 3.7% to 4.0%.
– Soft data and financial markets generally agree with this assessment and point to further acceleration at the turn of 2025 and 2026. Nevertheless, achieving 4 percent on average this year is very unlikely – explained Pekao economists.
– We need to revise our full-year growth forecast down to 3.6-3.7% (from 3.8%). But let's face it – this is a very good number, and next year will be even better – mBank economists wrote on the X platform.
🇵🇱 GDP in the third quarter increased by 3.7% (the previous quarter was revised down to 3.3%). The next quarter will exceed 4%. We need to revise our full-year growth forecast down to 3.6-3.7% (from 3.8%). But let's face it – this is a very good number, and next year will be even better. pic.twitter.com/8rFX3Jb2N4
— mBank Research (@mbank_research) November 13, 2025
The IMF, however, is less optimistic. The latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund assumes that this year Polish GDP will grow by 3.2% and in 2026 by 3.1%. An even lower forecast was presented by the World Bank, which predicted economic growth of 30% next year. Analysts of the National Bank of Poland remain slightly more optimistic and assumed a GDP growth of 3.1% in the November inflation projection for 2026.
– We estimate that the main driver of GDP growth remained consumption, the dynamics of which remained at a level similar to that in Q2. We assume that investments have returned to growth y/y. – PKO BP economists wrote on the X platform.
– GDP growth accelerated in the third quarter from 3.3 to 3.7% y/y. This is a new cyclical maximum, but we expected more (3.9% y/y). We will wait for the details of the reading, but without much risk we can bet on high private consumption (4.5% y/y) and investment returning above the mark (2.5% y/y) – added Bank Pekao economists. They also added that the current wave of economic recovery in Poland is the weakest in this century. We recorded a more dynamic GDP path even after the slowdown in 2001-02.
Consequently, the current recovery/expansion is the slowest this century. After all this time, Poland was recovering faster, even from the 2001 crisis. pic.twitter.com/q8MSiCcKik
— Pekao Analyzes (@Pekao_Analizy) November 13, 2025
– What's next? We are waiting for an investment acceleration (what is delayed will not escape), but the biggest challenge is the persistence of weak demand among Poland's main trading partners – they added.
