The banks' net profit will be even higher. Analysts: It will exceed PLN 10 billion

Analysts estimate that the net profit of nine listed banks in the third quarter of 2025 will total PLN 10.4 billion, i.e. 4%. higher than a year earlier and 12 percent higher than in the second quarter of 2025 – according to data collected by PAP Biznes. According to analysts, after a good second quarter, loan write-offs will increase and provisions for CHF loans should be lower.

This week, listed banks start the season of publishing results for the third quarter of 2025. The first data for this period will be published by Bank Millennium (on Friday, October 24), and the following week the results will be published by Alior Bank, Santander Bank Polska, mBank, Bank Pekao and ING Bank Śląski.

Data collected among analysts surveyed by PAP Biznes shows that in the third quarter of 2025, the profit of nine listed banks will total PLN 10.37 billion, i.e. 4.3 percent. higher than a year earlier and 12.1 percent higher than in the second quarter of 2025.

“In the case of eight Polish banks that we cover in the analysis, we estimate that the dynamics of interest income adjusted by the number of days in the quarter will amount to minus 2% QoQ, mainly as a result of the decline in interest rates, partially offset by higher volumes. These trends should continue in the following quarters,” Erste Securities analyst Łukasz Jańczak told PAP Biznes.

According to the collected data, bank interest earnings and fees and commissions will change only slightly – interest earnings will decline by 2%. year to year and will be 0.3 percent lower than in the second quarter of 2025, while the commission fee will increase by 2%. and will fall by 0.5%. kdk.

Greater changes are expected in the case of loan provisions, which – according to estimates – will be 55 percent lower. higher than in the second quarter of 2025.

“Fee and commission revenues should remain broadly stable. Total costs are growing roughly at the rate of inflation, after adjusting for increases in regulatory costs (BFG). After an exceptionally strong second quarter, we expect loan write-offs to return to a more normal level in the third quarter, particularly in the corporate segment,” Jańczak said.

Traditionally, the results of some banks will be burdened by provisions for legal risk related to mortgage loans in foreign currencies, but they may be lower than in previous periods.

“The estimated legal provisions for CHF loans should be lower than those reported in both Q2 2025 and Q3 2024.” – said Jańczak.

PKO BP previously announced that it estimates the costs of legal risk related to mortgage loans denominated and indexed to foreign currencies, included in the results of the third quarter of 2025, at PLN 1.15 billion. mBank estimates these provisions at PLN 426.7 million, and Bank Millennium at PLN 394 million. In the case of the latter, the additional value of legal risk provisions related to the portfolio of foreign currency loans granted by the former Euro Bank, expected to be created – but without impact on the financial result – is estimated at PLN 91 million.

Below is the consensus on the banks' net result in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the results for the third quarter of 2024.

PAP Biznes's calculations regarding the results for the third quarter include PKO BP, Pekao SA, Santander Bank Polska, mBank, ING Bank Śląski, Bank Handlowy, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank and BNP Paribas Bank Polska and are based on the forecasts of six brokerage houses.

(PAP Business)

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