– The current situation is not a surprise. Companies have long evaluated the economic situation and development prospects in a cautious way. Changes on the labor market, such as layoffs or fewer recruitments, are a delayed effect of economic turmoil that enterprises had to face in recent years – explains Mateusz Jewish, spokesman and leader of the Randstad communication team.
As he explains, the last five years have been a real test for business. Pandemic, broken supply chains, geopolitical uncertainty, galloping inflation and stagnation at our western neighbors accumulated, leading to cooling on the labor market.
– Polish entrepreneurs and employees deserve admiration in this difficult situation. Their determination and flexibility meant that we are not dealing with a crisis, but only with some slowdown – he emphasizes. Despite this, the growing costs of operating, especially energy prices, hit many production companies. – After so many blows, many companies simply did not have enough financial reserves to avoid reduction of full -time jobs – he adds.
Surprising on the seasonal labor market
The unusual situation on the seasonal labor market was also influenced by the level of registered unemployment. The holiday period usually brought revival, but this time it was different.
– Many companies, anticipating worse weather or a greater tendency to save among consumers, gave up employing additional staff. What's more, home budgets weakened by inflation could have caused some employees to give up long holidays, and this in turn limited the demand for seasonal substitutions – explains Mateusz Żydek. This effect affected not only tourism, but also production and logistics.
Problematic investment costs, automation and research methodology
In the opinion of prof. Jacek Męcina, a specialist in the labor market and adviser to the Lewiatan Confederation Board, weaker readings from the labor market are primarily The effect of company investment caution. On the one hand, geopolitical uncertainty works, on the other – rising employment costs. The expert considers as a key brake rapid increase in the minimum wage (about 65 % in three years), which hit primarily small and medium -sized enterprises and led to flattening pay nets.
The expert also points out that the registered unemployment data should be approached with reserve. It indicates a significant difference between the statistics of the offices and the BAEL study, which verifies the actual job search. As he explains, the current system in which the status of the unemployed is a condition for access to health insurance and a gate to attractive programs, motivates to register people who are not really interested in taking up employment. – If we create mechanisms encouraging registration, then people register, often for reasons other than looking for a job – he notes.
Professor J. Męcina also warns against exaggerated combination of an unemployment rate growth with automation and robotization: – What we observe today on the labor market is not the effect of increased investments in robotization. Unfortunately, in terms of saturation of the economy with robots, we occupy one of the weaker places in the European Union – emphasizes.
In his opinion, Poland needs huge outlays and a good climate for investments in modern technologies if we want to strengthen the competitiveness of our companies and the entire economy. The expert warns that in the era of growing economic protectionism and global competition, we must actively protect jobs and encourage Polish and foreign investors to modernize our factories in Poland. Otherwise, we risk not only inhibiting development, but also the relocation of existing plantswhich – contrary to stereotypes about the country of the assembly – strengthen the innovation of the economy and create valuable and good quality workplaces. As Jacek Męcina emphasizes, the economy shows its potential, even when we look at economic growth, we need development and investment impulses, which will also translate into the labor market and employment increases over time.
Despite the difficulties, experts do not beat the alarm. – The economy sends more and more signals that the more difficult situation on the labor market is only temporary. The companies have breathed a sigh, because inflation does not bother so much, and national consumption remains rather stable – says Mateusz Jewish.
The better and better economic situation in Western Europe translates into larger orders for Polish companies, and the upcoming Christmas season will traditionally stimulate logistics and production. – Everything indicates that the situation is stabilizing. This does not mean, however, that we will have a quick return to a record boom on the labor market, which we observed 2-3 years ago. Instead, we can expect a gradual but permanent improvement – sums up Mateusz Żydek.
