Poland's rating will fall? Piotr Kuczyński points to the important role of the government and the president
“By changing the perspective to the negative Moody's, he made it clear that Lack of agreement between the government and the president makes it difficult to consolidate public finances, and makes it difficult to reduce debt” – assessed the financial markets of the investment house Xelion Piotr Kuczyński.
He reminded that in March the agency expected a gradual fiscal consolidation from 2026 and stabilization of debt of about 60 percent. GDP until 2030 “Meanwhile, the latest forecasts of bank analysts show that the deficit of the public finance sector both in 2025 and later will be higher than the March expectations of Moody's,” he pointed out.
Polish rating. Key debt and relationship of the government and the president
In his opinion Poland's public debt in 2026 will beat 66 percent GDP, which may mean a reduction in rating if the government and the president do nothing to limit the deficit and debt.
“Moody's analysts are afraid that the president may veal various government proposals aimed at limiting the budget hole,” explained Piotr Kuczyński.
The economist also noted that despite the growing debt, Poland has not been covered by the excessive deficit procedure, which the European Commission initiates over the excessively indebted countries. “This is due to the fact that some of the expenses that Poland bears for reinforcements is not taken by the European Union in total debt to GDP,” he said.
Polish rating. “Social Bonanza's time is over”
Rafał Benecki also mentions the problem of the president's lack of cooperation with the government in the context of assessing the credibility of Poland and rating. He noted, however, that The Polish rating assessment may be reduced in subsequent years if politicians fail to control expenses. He pointed out that the upcoming election campaign related to parliamentary elections in 2027 will not serve the savings policy, which in turn may lead to a reduction in rating.
– I think that the agency sent a strong signal to politicians that the lack of cooperation between the government and the president is not served by the economy nor the state – he said. He estimated that the change in Poland's rating perspective from stable to negative is a “yellow card for politicians” and a signal that “social time Bonanza is over.”
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