An important political scientist names the way by which the Vestea Government can pass the Parliament's vote without the support of the PNL. “But it has to move fast”

The appointment of Adrian Vestea as a candidate for the position of prime minister shakes the political scene. It is an expected move, but produced at an unexpected moment, explains political scientist Cristian Pîrvulescu, in an interview for News.ro.

• Pîrvulescu believes that the strategy is not just a name change, but a tactical maneuver of a rare complexity, intended to reconfigure the balance of forces in Parliament and within the parties.

A strategic moment

According to Pîrvulescu, the moment chosen for Tomac's withdrawal – a Sunday morning, just two days before the decisive vote – is a strategic one. The analyst points out that maintaining that candidacy had become toxic for the president's image.

“It was already obvious from the end of the week that the support for a Tomac government is low. It had the image of a PSD puppet government, so there was an enormous risk for the president”, explains Pîrvulescu (photo). In this context, the nomination of Veştea appears as a solution to get out of the deadlock of a too close association with the social democrats.

The conflict moves to the PNL: The analogy with the year 1934

The most important consequence of the new appointment is, in the opinion of the political scientist, the transfer of the crisis directly to the court of the National Liberal Party. Pîrvulescu believes that this movement forces a clarification within the PNL, where the official camp led by Ilie Bolojan seems to have lost the initiative.

“The president chose this formula that moves the entire confrontation inside the PNL”, says the political scientist. He even makes a suggestive historical parallel with the interwar period: “I found similar in the history of the PNL [situaţie] in January 1934, when King Carol II tried to take control of the PNL and install liberal ministers according to his will”. Carol II managed to impose the Tatarescu Government after the assassination of IG Duca, and the movement was accepted by the politicians of that time.

The current stake is the speed of reaction

Pîrvulescu warns that, if the supporters of the new nomination do not act quickly, the current PNL leadership will try to block Veștea's rise: “If they do not move quickly, then Ilie Bolojan and Moşneanu will have the opportunity to organize the defense, organize the congress and eliminate Mr. Veștea”.

The Mathematics of Power: Floating Votes

Although the opposition of the official camp formed by the PNL and the USR seems solid, Pîrvulescu indicates a way through which the new government could obtain the necessary majority in Parliament. The key does not necessarily lie in the big parties, but in the parliamentarians without a clear direction at the moment.

“If the UDMR votes and the minorities vote, the number of floating votes is sufficient to ensure support”, points out the analyst.

He estimates that there are approximately “50 (parliamentarians) who are no longer in the regiment and who can offer their vote… who voted for the censure motion”. This table of maneuver could tilt the balance in favor of the new prime minister's proposal.

Pîrvulescu also warns about the fact that many of the PNL parliamentarians are promoted by the former leadership of the National Liberal Party, which would make it difficult for Ilie Bolojan to control them. From here, the fissures could appear that could ensure enough votes for Adrian Veştea's accession to the prime minister's portfolio.

The dilemma of the USR and the “laminated” silence of the PSD

Regarding the other political forces, Pîrvulescu observes major difficulties. The USR is facing an ideological deadlock, having “a principle that it voted for and that it will not be able to abandon – that of not supporting the PSD in government”, which could lead to internal fractures similar to those in the rest of the political class.

Surprisingly, the largest party, PSD, remained silent in the first hours after the announcement. The analyst describes the state of shock of the social democrats in front of the presidential strategy. “PSD is dumb, it's surprised, it's laminated.”