Suspicion: The Kremlin is preparing for a possible serious conflict with NATO.
According to reports military bases are being expanded, new locations are being created, and combat units are being transferred to the north and to the Baltic countries. The regions around the Baltic Sea are particularly affected.
Intelligence chiefs from Scandinavia and high-ranking NATO officers warn against this in the report dangerous time window.
They consider the next one to three years to be the “absolutely most dangerous” period for a possible military confrontation.
Satellite analyzes that DR prepared together with other media from the Baltic and Scandinavian countries show clear Russian armaments along its borders with Europe. Former Finnish intelligence officer Marko Eklund told the station that Moscow is deliberately creating accommodation opportunities for tens of thousands of additional troops.
Only near the border with Finland, extensive bases could accommodate approximately 80,000. soldiers, said Finnish Lieutenant General Pasi Valimaki. Previously it was about 20 thousand. Including after the end of the fighting in Ukraine approximately 115,000 could be stationed near NATO borders. soldiersand in a crisis situation this number would be much higher.
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“Existential question”
NATO is not sufficiently prepared for such a conflict. “This will be a war that will take place in all dimensions. It will take place on land, in the air, at sea, in space and in cyberspace,” said Danish Major General Brian Nissen. He noted a possible “existential question” for European democracies. At the same time, NATO officers complain that Europe has too few soldiers, drones, combat aircraft and space technology.
“This is a threat that we should take very seriously,” Thomas Nilsson, head of Swedish military intelligence, told DR. At the same time, several sources emphasized that Vladimir Putin has not yet decided to launch a direct attack on NATO territory.
Denmark's ambassador to the Kremlin, Vladimir Barbin, rejects these allegations as “lies” and says the real threat comes from NATO.
NATO's Supreme Commander in Europe, Alexus Grynkewich, said at the Berlin International Aerospace Exhibition, referring to a possible scenario in the Baltic countries, that his task is to ensure “that this does not happen tomorrow.” At the same time, he emphasized that if Russia tries military action in this region, it will suffer defeat. “Russia knows it will not succeed and will not take such a risk,” he added.
The Kremlin's problems with the war in Ukraine
Panic in Crimea, a hole in the budget, frustration around the Kremlin – at the same time, Vladimir Putin's problems are growing.
Due to Ukrainian drone attacks on the strategically important peninsula, which Russia has occupied since 2014, strict restrictions were introduced at the end of May restrictions on gasoline consumption.
The fuel shortage is not the only way in which Russian civilians are feeling the effects of the war. The economy is slowing down and the state budget is losing balance. Recently, government representatives have been alarming and warning Putin about the huge hole threatening the budget. The reason is the costs of war. The Russian president does not want to accept this and is looking for ways to cut spending elsewhere.
The longer the war continues, the more Putin's power base crumbles. Frustration, tensions and doubts are growing in his surroundings. Society and everyday life are under pressure, there is a shortage of soldiers and workers. Even the elites stop believing in victory on the front.
Losses are mounting. In 2026, Moscow's forces will lose on average about 9,000 people on the front. killed per month, or approximately 300 people per day – calculated by Janis Kluge, an expert at the German Institute of International and Security Affairs, based on budget data from Russian regions.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
