The recent statements of the political leaders highlight the uncertainty regarding the future of the executive of Romania. Although the mandate of the current coalition could continue another year and a half, this term is considered optimistic. The political scientist Cristian Pîrvulescu emphasizes that maintaining the coalition until the government rotation depends on avoiding internal tensions or unilateral decisions that could lead to collaboration.
PHOTO Government of Romania
The ruling coalition, consisting of four different parties and a parliamentary group “It works and goes forward,” claims President Nicușor Dan, who also emphasized the uncertainty around the Bolojan government: “Until” …
The answer comes from one of the members of the government. Minister Tanczos Barna hopes that the current government formula will not break at least a year and a half. “I saw every time I thought that now it will be possible and now it does not break down and we get to take four years properly, it was not to be. I do not dream of such four years of political stability, but I honestly want to withstand at least a year and a half now to stabilize the economy ”says Tanczos Barna.
It is certain that no political leader gives the finalization of the mandate in the current formula. The problem that arises is what can be replaced. The scenarios are multiple and gloomy for government, even if no one will want early elections, from minority to technocrat. None will hold the power needed for the desired measures, the parliamentary majority that is needed being the reason for the formation of the PSD-PNL-USR-UDMR coalition and minorities.
Factors that can trigger coalition breakage
At present, “PSD is the one who has especially the coalition keys ”stresses the political scientist Cristian Pârvulescu for “Adevărul”. The current government formula should not change at least until the government rock, when the parties could re -evaluate the direction in which they started.
“In a year and a half should PSD take over the leadership, to have prime minister. So why would it only take a year and a half? Who does not keep the coalition understanding? () We could imagine that USR would not accept this. Important (…) All these things will count because they will create more stability or more instability ”, emphasizes the politicalologist Cristian Pîrvulescu.
Rocada offers the first opportunity for major changes in the executive, if the coalition will resist until then. We recall that at the government rock from 2023 PNL and PSD they removed the UDMR.
“This is also the reason why it says a year and a half (no – Tanzos Barna), because it is based on its own experience, only then it was not necessary. Now, each of these parties is necessary, but the one without which the majority can never be realized. which they will have or will not have, we do not know how the situation will evolve. also explains the political scientist Cristiaan Pârvulescu.
The elections in the Capital
The electoral race in the capital can have strong effects on the coalition. The political scientist Cristian Pârvulescu points out that the current collaboration “It depends a lot on the behavior of the other coalition partners (no – PNL, USR, UDMR). It depends on what would happen at the Capital City Hall, it depends on the strategies, depending on the moment when the elections in Bucharest will be. There are a lot of things. PSD, PNL and USR want everyone to win Bucharest to relaunch politically ”.
The elections in the PSD
“On the other hand, the coalition can break even earlier, but it depends on the context. That is, on the PSD Congress and the group that will take over the leadership of the party. It will be all this, because there will be obvious different visions. The pressure of the PSD local leaders in one direction, at the moment, have managed to slow down.”the political scientist points out.
The scenarios of the coalition break
Minority government
“The simplest solution is for the PSD to withdraw and support the Government, a minority government. Otherwise, the Government cannot work”points out Cristian Parvulescu.
Thus, a variant could be the minority government, but only with the support of the Social Democrats in the Parliament, in which case the freedom of action of the Executive would be quite limited: “If it will be a minority government, it will be a PNL government, UDMR, USR, supported by PSD from outside and conditional, blocking any decisions and without assuming government liability.”.
Technocrat government
Another variant is that of the Technocratic Government, a variant that could reach the Victoria Palace according to how things evolve. “The technocratic government could work very well now. (…) But it's possible. It depends on how serious the crisis will be. So if it will be a crisis and how serious it will be. Because the exit from the crisis is done with a technocratic government”, Explains the political scientist Cristian Pârvulescu.
The option in which the PSD would be alia with gold in the event of a government withdrawal remains a variable: “I could not exclude a gold alliance insofar as Mr. Corlățean becomes president of the party, given his visions. But I wouldn't have convinced that he would do this. Mr. Grindeanu assured us that it will not happen during his term, but we do not know how long his mandate will take ”, concludes the political schedule.
