Zelensky's letter against the spirit of Anchorage. What will this lead to?
In terms of information, the St. Petersburg forum turned into a complete humiliation of Putin. The first day was a triumph for Ukrainian drones, and on the second, everyone was talking not about Putin’s speech, but about Zelensky’s letter.
But the main thing is: how will this affect the further course of the war?
1. The kinetic information campaign of SPIEF 2026 is undoubtedly one of the best of the entire war. The strike on the port of St. Petersburg and Zelensky’s letter to Putin, obviously, became one of the peaks of the entire spring campaign of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on middle and deep strikes with a very good kinetic effect and very correct information coverage.
2. The consequence of this attack is already the acceleration of the transition of some Russians from the category of loyalists and indifferent to the category of kitchen opposition (I first wrote about this on 03.30.26). But we must understand that the transition to the kitchen opposition is caused not only by our strikes and stopping the advance of the Russians. There are three more internal reasons: the deterioration of life for tens of millions of Russians, the loss of faith in the end of the war, and the feeling of tens of millions of Russians that the war will continue as long as Putin is in power. And finally, turning off the Internet.
3. And here we come to a very important point: for the first time during the war, Putin is forced to address himself primarily to his audience. And he tells this audience why the war cannot be stopped. Hence the stories about Starobelsk. And hence, by the way, the fact that for the first time since 2021 he partially recognized Zelensky’s legitimacy.
4. At the same time, it is worth paying attention to the target audiences with whom Putin and Zelensky communicate (Zelensky’s letter, in addition to the Ukrainian and international audience, is also addressed to Russians). So, Putin appeals primarily to two Russian audiences: to himself (the main message: I want the war to continue) and to the 21–23% of jingoists who want a return to the paradigm: everyone is afraid of us. The passive majority (third audience) – 62–64% – is the background for Putin. Zelensky, on the contrary, appeals primarily to the passive majority, and jingoism is a background for him. He also appeals to Putin, humiliating him. Putin’s main message is “Ukraine is disrupting the negotiations.” We can already say that he will not succeed in this game again. By the way, this message is the main one for Putin and for the international audience. And here, too, no one believes in it. So he again hinted at a nuclear strike, mentioning that the Hazel had not yet actually been used.
5. But let's return to target audiences. Putin’s task at this stage is somewhat simpler: first, to silence (partially) the jingoistic patriots. And he believes that he will be able to fully complete this task in the fall, when the Internet is closed after the elections. Spoiler: it will be very difficult if Durov really gets involved in this game. In the meantime, he is wasting time. As for the passive majority, he considers it non-subjective. And partly right. Our problem is that we appeal to a small majority that has no leader or idea. Simply put, we are not preparing a revolution. Just as the West is not preparing it. At the same time, there is only hope for the elites, who are still simply afraid.
6. Expanding the geography of attacks and the emergence of fuel shortages in many regions of the Russian Federation, which is quite realistic in October – December 2026, will certainly increase the number of dissatisfied people. But the lack of a leader, ideas and a lack of traitors among the security forces will turn Russia into Iran, and will not lead to the Maidans.
7. The revolution must be prepared. Let me give you a classic example: in the 20s, the Union decided to incorporate the Communist Party of China into the Kuomintang in order to later obtain the People's Republic of China. This is just an example, if anything.
Source: Vadym Denysenko / Facebook
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