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Putin with new powers. A straight path to provocation in Europe


Under the act approved by the Duma on May 13 and by the Federation Council on May 20, the president will now be able to use the army to “protect citizens of the Russian Federation” in the event of their “arrest, detention, criminal prosecution or other persecution” abroad.

This concerns situations where Russian citizens were detained abroad by local courts without the authorization of the Russian Federation, as well as by international judicial authorities that Russia does not recognize – according to the justification to the act.

Appropriate amendments are being introduced to the federal laws “On Citizenship” and “On Defense”. In the current version of these regulations, the president has the right to send troops abroad if states or international institutions make decisions “contrary to the interests of the Russian Federation” or “foundations of public order” in Russia.

Is Russia preparing for a provocation?

The decision to expand Putin's authority to use the army abroad came after a series of warnings from leading NATO countries that the Kremlin was preparing for war with one or more European countries.

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In summer the head of the German intelligence service BND warned against the risk of a Russian provocation in the Baltic countries similar to the annexation of Crimea, while in February, Danish intelligence reported that Russia may be able to start a large-scale war in Europe within five years.

US intelligence warned in March 2026 that Putin may decide to “conscious escalation” of the conflict in Ukraineup to a direct clash with NATO, including the threat of using nuclear weapons.

According to data from the Dutch Military Intelligence Service (MIVD), the Kremlin needs about a year to assemble sufficient forces for a “regional conflict” with NATO. According to MIVD, the aim of a possible Russian attack will not be to defeat NATO militarily, but “a political split through limited territorial gains.” The intelligence does not rule out that Moscow will resort to nuclear blackmail to achieve this goal.

“Phase zero” of preparations for such a war in Russia has already begun, as experts from the Institute for War Studies wrote in October. According to ISW, this is evidenced by the reorganization of military districts on the country's western border, the creation of military bases near the border with Finland, as well as acts of sabotage, disruption of the operation of electronic warfare systems, GPS jamming, arson and provocations in the airspace.

Ashley Davis

I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.

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