“Officially, 40 percent of the federal budget is spent on defense and security. What development, investments and capital expenditure can we talk about? Neither tanks nor missiles have any use value: the economy produces them, but they cannot be consumed by society. These are pure expenses,” Suleimanov said in an interview for Kontinent Sibir magazine.
According to him, large spending on the defense complex provides jobs, but at the same time leads to an increase in inflation and a reduction in budget spending for social and investment purposes. At the same time, the MP emphasized that they would be needed even after the end of the war “colossal expenditure” for the reconstruction of occupied territories, as well as for the support and adaptation of those who return from the front.
“The special operation has been going on longer than the Great Patriotic War. Let it end with a victory, not an intermediate result,” Suleimanov concluded.
According to the federal budget for 2026, Russian military expenditure will amount to 12.93 trillion rubles (PLN 662 billion at the current exchange rate), and taking into account expenditure on security and law enforcement activities – 16.84 trillion rubles (PLN 864 billion). This way the armed forces will receive a total of 38%. budgetcompared to 24 percent in pre-war 2021. At the same time, the share of social expenditure in the state treasury budget will decrease from 38.1%. in 2021 to 25.1 percent this year.
In the period January–April, the budget deficit amounted to 5.88 trillion rubles (PLN 301 billion), or 2.5%. GDP, which is an increase of almost 3 trillion rubles (PLN 153 billion) compared to last year. Meanwhile, the annual plan predicts a deficit of 3.79 trillion rubles (PLN 194 billion), or 1.6 percent. GDP.
Way down
At the same time in the first quarter the Russian economy began to shrink for the first time since 2023: GDP decreased by 0.2%. year on year, and the decline in industrial sectors not related to raw materials was 0.7%.
In May, the government lowered its economic growth forecast for this year to 0.4%. This is three times less than the authorities initially expected, 2.5 times less than the 2025 rate and 10 times less than the rate at which the economy grew in 2023–2024.
In the conservative scenario of the Ministry of Economic Development, based on the return of oil prices to the level of USD 50. (PLN 182 billion) per barrel, the economy will end the year with a decline of 0.5%. — for the first time since 2022
In addition, in 2026, Russian citizens will face almost a complete halt in real income growth and they will be forced to virtually freeze spending on the purchase of goods and services, predicts the Ministry of Economic Development.
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A blow to ordinary people
In the base scenario, the real income of Russians will increase this year by only 0.8%. This is three times less than the ministry predicted half a year ago (2.1%). nine times less than last year (Rosstat estimated this increase at 7.4%).
In the conservative scenario, which assumes a drop in oil prices to USD 50. and the slowdown of the global economy due to the war in Iran, income growth will be only 0.5%.
Consumers who have already switched to saving modethey will remain there at least until the end of the year – according to the forecast. The growth of retail trade turnover, according to the ministry's estimates, will slow down to 0.8%. — that is, five times compared to last year (4.1%). In the conservative scenario, the ministry allows for a decline in retail sales of 0.4%. — first from 2022
Lower forecasts of population income growth forced the ministry to generally lower economic forecasts, which in turn is associated with the deterioration of conditions for oil production and exports, as well as the restrictive policy of the central bank, notes economist Dmitry Polevoy.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
