Analysis by investment bank JP Morgan “now suggests” that global oil prices will remain above $100 for most of the year even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened from next month, according to a note on Monday, the BBC wrote.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil and gas shipments passed in peacetime, has been crippled by the US-Iran war, so prices have skyrocketed on global markets, bringing extra profits to major companies in the sector.
In a note on Monday, JP Morgan said its analysis “now suggests that oil prices should remain just above $100 for most of the rest of the year, with an average of $97 for 2026 as a whole.”
The bank warns that supply issues will not be fixed quickly even in the reopening scenario.
“It is critical that the analysis does not point to a rapid normalization once the strait reopens,” JP Morgan added, explaining that the bottleneck is likely to shift from “the strait itself to tanker availability, rising refinery output and broader logistical constraints.”
Similar industry warning
Amin Nasser, the head of Saudi giant Aramco, told investors on Monday that the war-induced shock to the energy sector would likely extend into 2027, even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen.
“If the Strait of Hormuz opens today, it will still take months for the market to rebalance, and if the opening is delayed by a few weeks, then normalization will take until 2027,” he warned.
The company announced on Sunday that its revenue increased by more than 25% in the first three months of the year compared to the same period of the previous year.
The Saudi energy giant's transnational pipeline “proved to be a critical supply artery” and helped it avoid disruptions to shipping caused by the Iran war, Amin Nasser also said.
PHOTO: Darin Echelberger | Dreamstime.com
