Trump is weakening before America's eyes. But Republicans can still win

This is growing concern among Democrats that the fight for control of the House has become completely open again – even though the political mood seemed to be in their favor. Their previously unexpected success in the battle for new districts fell apart in the courts, and before November they practically have no opportunity to respond.

I think we'll still take back the House of Representatives, but it's a huge blow. Now we just have to win at the ballot box. And we are able to do it

said Democratic political strategist Adrienne Elrod, who has worked in both Congress and on four presidential campaigns.

Pre-set district maps can eliminate a lot

— echoed her statement by state-level Democratic consultant Trevor Southerland.

Democrats against the wall

There are still many reasons to believe that the House of Representatives could go to Democrats, who need to take over just three seats currently controlled by Republicans.

But conversations with more than a dozen Democrats from across the country on Friday revealed one thing: the path to a majority in the House of Representatives in November became much more difficult.

The Virginia verdict makes Donald Trump's map even more skewed toward Republicans. That means a much steeper climb for Democrats

said Democratic strategist Jared Leopold, who has worked on dozens of federal and state campaigns.

Trump can manipulate district maps, but he can't boost his approval ratings. And I think that will continue to weigh on Republicans like an anchor

– he added.

Strategists from both parties assumed from the beginning that it would be difficult for Republicans to retain the House, mainly due to Trump's declining popularity and the historical trend in which the ruling party often loses in midterm elections.

The last ten days have breathed new life into Republicans

The court's ruling in Virginia means that instead of being virtually assured of four new seats in the state, Democrats will now have to spend huge amounts of money to take over two, or at best three, seats in the current election cycle.

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And this is after they have already spent over $60 million. (approx. PLN 240 million) for the referendum initiative, which the court has just invalidated – in a year when Republicans have a financial advantage anyway.

The money that will now have to be spent on saving Democrats' chances in the House of Representatives may force the party to make very difficult financial decisions.

Democrats will have to go all out in the fight for the House, even if it means giving up on expanding the battlefield for the Senate.

– said one Democratic strategist, who was granted anonymity so that he could speak openly about the political situation.

The Democrats' battlefield is shrinking

However, the Supreme Court's ruling on the Voting Rights Act will have much more serious consequences. It's a decision that could long-term harm Democrats' chances of retaking the House — both this year and in the years to come.

Republicans in Tennessee approved a new district map on Thursday that virtually eliminates the state's only Democratic representative. At the same time, many other southern states are rapidly moving forward with similar changes and are doing so under enormous time pressure.

Litigation against Republican district maps in Florida and Missouri is still ongoing, and it's still unclear how many new Republican-leaning seats will ultimately be sealed before November.

Just a year ago — when the White House redistricting talks had not yet come to light — it was hard to imagine that as many as ten House districts would be redrawn to favor Republicans by mid-decade, even if some of them remained politically close.

Both verdicts are a huge victory for Trump and his political base.

“Lord, give me humility”

James Blair, who about a year ago presented Trump in the Oval Office with the idea of ​​redrawing districts on a nationwide scale in the middle of the decade, commented on the decision on the X website with an ironic post.

Lord, give me humility

Blair wrote.

Chris LaCivita, Trump's 2024 presidential campaign manager, praised Blair with an X after the verdict was announced.

Always initiate action, never wait for someone to take the first step… Too few Republicans understand this, but those who do chart the future

— wrote LaCivita.

Ultimately, it was the courts — not other Republicans — that delivered Trump's biggest victories in the fight for new districts. The White House has repeatedly clashed with state legislators across the country who have refused to bow to pressure to redraw maps.

“Our fight is not over”

Democrats, however, are unable to respond with their own manipulation of constituencies. They are limited by independent electoral commissions, state regulations, already aggressively redrawn maps and some of their own politicians who do not want to go this route.

Our fight is not over. We're just getting started

– assured the leader of the Democratic minority in the House of Representatives Hakeem Jeffries.

Hakeem Jeffries, Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, during a press conference. Washington, February 18, 2026EPA/SHAWN THEW / PAP

Republican victories may already be virtually certain in the 2026 elections, but 2028 is a completely different story. Democrats are already setting the stage for a total, no-holds-barred political war. Republicans who have been reluctant to concede over the past year may also join — especially in southern states that are unlikely to have time to redraw districts before November, such as Georgia.

It's not over until it's really over

said Adam Kincaid, head of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, which prepared the district map for Texas last summer.