Unexpected effects of the censure motion against Bolojan: only now, the idea of ​​a new party gained strength

The score of the censure motion was categorical: 281 votes against the Bolojan government. The negative record of the fall of the Cîțu government, from 2021, was equaled. PSD announced its victory over Ilie Bolojan. But the real winners may turn out to be others, in the end.

The first winner is Ilie Bolojan, whom the PSD reinvented politically. If the liberals remain united around him, the deposed prime minister will be the first president of the PNL in the last ten years that his colleagues did not sacrifice by virtue of momentary interests, and will seriously mess up the immediate plans of the social democrats.

What does the future look like in PNL? A departure of liberals close to the PSD, estimated so far to be in the minority, which could place the PNL with Bolojan in the opposition, will further strengthen his authority.

Bolojan grows when cornered

As the reverse of the situation suits the loser on today's score. Because, if the faction of liberals who want the continuation of collaboration with PSD without the current prime minister will be in the majority, they will marginalize Bolojan again.

But Bolojan doesn't shrink when he's marginalized. Let's remember what happened when the PNL overseen by President Iohannis did not use the Oradean at the national level. His local achievements rolled around, like a myth. Though muted, he grew.

Such marginalization from the PNL will, in fact, be a legitimization of Ilie Bolojan as the leader of the “reformist” movement. Especially when his supporters, many with liberal thinking, tested his thinking in the 10 months. The scenario of establishing a new party, relevantly liberal and definitively stripped of its PSD coat, no longer seems like a fantasy. There are several options, journalist Cristian Andrei analyzed them immediately after the motion.

In the evening, the PNL leadership affirmed its support for the version of the future proposed by Bolojan: the opposition. But it is only the first consultation. There may still be “changes of mind” of the party, especially since the “Predoiu faction”, which lost the vote, left the hall.

PSD sunset and GOLD sunrise

The second winner in this crisis is GOLD. The sanitary cord has disappeared. The exclusion of AUR from the scenarios of power was abandoned by a wide range of power centers, from the president Nicușor Dan, to the PSD leader Sorin Grindeanu. This strengthens AUR's status as the only opposition party with prospects for further growth.

The legitimate question then is: what was PSD's plan? The answer probably lies with the social democratic leaders who provoked this political movement, slamming the government in which their own ministers sat at the decision table until recently. We have some clues.

PSD finds itself at the worst moment in its history. In the last cycles of parliamentary elections, which count for the accession to power, the social democrats registered the most drastic loss of the electorate.

If in 2016, during the Dragnea era, the PSD obtained over 3.2 million votes, in 2024, the PSD led by Marcel Ciolacu was voted by a little over 2 million Romanians, against the background of a more than 20% higher turnout, and its leader did not enter, for the first time, in the second round of the presidential elections. In 8 years, PSD not only failed to attract the electorate, but lost 1.2 million votes.

It is the hardest blow for a traditional party. The PNL did not grow, but managed to keep its number of votes relatively constant (1.4 million votes in 2016 vs. 1.3 million in 2024).

During this time, GOLD had a spectacular growth. If in 2020, George Simion's party obtained just over 500,000 votes, in 2024 his party was chosen by 1.6 million Romanians.

AUR came along the ideological corridor of PRM, later taken over by PSD for which “we are not selling our country” and “proud to be Romanians” became an assumed way of doing politics.

It is evident that a significant part of the votes lost by the PSD are found in the AUR and remained there with the step taken by the social democrats to govern alongside the PNL. And leaving George Simion's party alone in opposition further contributed to this.

Since taking over the leadership of the party, Sorin Grindeanu's main strategy has been to stop the pesedist hemorrhage towards the AUR. Symbolically, he deleted the term “progressive” from the statute. In practice, he took over the voice of AUR in the government, culminating in accusations that the liberal partners led by Ilie Bolojan want to hand the country over to foreigners.

AUR has the initiative

Sorin Grindeanu claims that he does not want a government with AUR, but he wants the votes of Simion's formation, they have no smell. As it seems nothing unnatural for him to return to negotiations with the liberals, but now from a position of strength.

With the dismissal of Ilie Bolojan, the message is clear: PSD does everything to protect its people and interests. It is no coincidence that the censure motion came at the moment when Bolojan's list was to include the companies/institutions/authorities that ensure PSD's influence.

Staying on the buttons of the PSD is vital for its political-economic elite's access to resources. A possible entry into the opposition, which the social democrats declaratively do not exclude, risks a rapid melting of the party in the AUR.

From power, losses can be managed, but not excluded. As the elections approach, the best-rated party becomes a magnet for other politicians. And the “momentum” now does not belong to PSD, but to AUR. They have the initiative.

The social democrats' reckoning at home may not match that of the fair. Left on the outside, AUR, in the absence of major unexpected developments, will be able to capitalize further on the discontent. Simion's move aims for the status of the country's first party.

What will Nicușor Dan do?

However, the role that will be played by President Nicușor Dan, who disappointed some of his supporters not only by not positioning himself in one camp or another, but also because he refused to even say how he sees what is happening, cannot be ignored.

Accused of “passionateness”, the head of state defended himself by invoking the constitutional mandate of mediator. However, nothing in the Constitution and the decisions of the Constitutional Court prohibits them from having opinions or intervening when the general interest requires it.

“The President of Romania can, by virtue of his prerogatives and legitimacy, express political opinions and options, formulate observations and criticisms regarding the functioning of public authorities and their exponents, propose reforms or measures that he deems desirable for the national interest”, ruled the CCR in the opinions it gave in the case of the two suspensions from office of President Traian Băsescu.

“However, the opinions, observations, preferences or requests of the President do not have a decision-making character and do not produce legal effects, the public authorities remaining solely responsible for their appropriation as well as for ignoring them. In any case, the exercise by the President of an active role in the political and social life of the country cannot be characterized as behavior contrary to the Constitution”, the CCR reasoned.

What will Nicușor Dan do? For now, he's asking us to take his word that he'll be fine. But what will he do? We will find out soon. Although “fast” means something else at the Cotroceni Palace, just as the notion of a “team” with the prime minister, good during the election campaign, meant something else.