Today's (May 4. – “GORDON”) resonant material based on a report from one of the European intelligence services on the situation in the Russian Federation and almost on the preparation of a coup is, of course, important evidence. This is a professionally prepared document that is likely based on information from high level sources. However, there are several important caveats that should be taken into account when analyzing the above.
The fact that Putin is afraid of an assassination attempt (whoever in his place would not be afraid) and is really concerned about Ukrainian drones is an obvious fact. Suffice it to recall the story of the drones that allegedly flew in the area of the residence in Valdai, and the subsequent hysterical reaction. As for the bunkers in the Krasnodar Territory, military command and control facilities are concentrated there, where Putin goes to lead his comrades.
As for the information about the “coup,” everything is somewhat more complicated. Firstly, the sources of the European intelligence services are not “hanging in the air”, but belong to one or another group of influence in Moscow. Secondly, it is worth considering that Shoigu, whom the report calls almost a potential organizer of the conspiracy, is an alien body in Putin’s “power” entourage, which includes Medvedev, Naryshkin, Bortnikov and others.
This environment has traditionally not been very kind to Shoigu, in particular because of his role in launching the adventure of a full-scale war against Ukraine and because of the way that war was fought. And not least because of how Shoigu and his family were able to make money on this, investing, however, not in occupied Lugansk or Melitopol, but in commercial real estate in Moscow.
Despite this, Shoigu remains a personal friend of Putin. Those who carefully observed their joint trips to Siberia could notice Putin’s interest in Buddhist practices, his attention to Altai and Tuvan healers and a number of other characteristic details.
Separately, it is worth noting that sources of European intelligence services often become more relaxed on the eve of at least some significant elections in Russia, for example, the Duma. It is possible that such leaks can be used by the Kremlin itself – as a way of testing the loyalty of those around them by throwing in information about the supposed deterioration of the situation.
At the same time, negativity really accumulates. Significant resources are being invested in the war, but the front has remained static for several years. In a situation where the aggressor does not win, in the eyes of many, the side that defends wins. This irritates the so-called Z-nicks, “military correspondents” and other bloodthirsty public, whose discontent needs to be channeled so that it does not unite into a single force. Prigozhin has already attempted to speak, and the Kremlin has something to remember on this topic.
Source:
Leonid Nevzlin / Telegram
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