How much will a full tank of diesel cost in the coming months. Experts' scenarios after the deadlock in negotiations between Iran and the US
Tensions between Iran and the United States risk keeping one of the world's most important energy routes blocked after Tehran proposed a 14-point plan difficult for Washington to accept. In this context, the scenarios regarding the accelerated increase in the price of oil and implicitly of diesel gain more and more weight, say the analysts consulted by “Adevărul”.
Diesel will continue to rise in price, analysts say. Archive photo
Iran presented the United States with a 14-point proposal to end the war for good, focusing on lifting the naval blockade, guarantees of non-aggression, withdrawal of US forces and lifting of sanctions. Given that these proposals are difficult for the US to accept, the Strait will most likely remain blocked. say the analysts.
In this situation, Trading Economics' advanced forecast – which points to a possible jump to $110/barrel in Q2 2026, $116/barrel in Q3 2026, $120 in Q4 and $124 in Q1 2027 – is not just a technical estimate. It's a wake-up call. Because, beyond the numbers, it speaks of a paradigm shift: energy is returning to the center of global tensions.
The proof of this theory is the very price of diesel on Monday, when the barrel of Brent oil was quoted at 108.7 dollars. At gas stations in Bucharest, standard diesel was sold on Monday for 9.67 lei/liter at Rompetrol and 9.73 lei/liter at Petrom, reaching 9.82 lei/liter at Mol and OMV and 9.94 lei/liter at Lukoil.
Chisăliță: Diesel can reach 12.5 lei, if the dollar reaches 6 lei
The energy expert Dumitru Chisăliță explained for “Adevărul” that not only the price of crude oil influences the price of fuels in Romania, but also the dollar-leu exchange rate.
“The price of diesel can reach 11 lei if the price of crude oil will be 120-124 dollars per barrel and the leu-dollar exchange rate remains at the current level.
However, the price of diesel can be even higher if the leu depreciates even more against the dollar. If the dollar reaches 6 lei, we add 1 or 1.5 lei, that is, a liter of diesel can reach 12.5 lei“, Chisăliță declared for “Adevărul”.
Gresoi: The fuel price does not linearly follow the evolution of the barrel
For his part, energy expert Silviu Gresoi told “Adevărul” that the fuel price does not linearly follow the evolution of the barrel, because only part of the final cost is directly influenced by the raw material.
“The price of fuel does not linearly follow the evolution of the barrel, because only part of the final cost is directly influenced by the raw material. About 40-50% of the price of diesel reflects the quotation of oil, the rest being represented by excises, VAT, logistics costs and commercial margins.
Gasoline and diesel have become more expensive again. How much it costs at the main gas stations
Under these conditions, a barrel increase of around 10–14% would realistically translate into a more moderate increase at the pump.
The estimate indicates that, if Brent reaches the range of 120 – 124 dollars, the price of diesel in Romania could rise to the area of 10.2 – 10.6 lei/liter, exceeding the psychological threshold of 10 lei. However, the exact evolution will also depend on the leu-dollar exchange rate, as well as possible logistical or commercial tensions in the market. Also, the impact is not instantaneous, there is usually a lag of a few days to one or two weeks, depending on the stocks and the pricing policy of the oil companies”said Silviu Gresoi for “Adevărul”.
Expensive oil is no longer an anomaly
Between forecast and reality we have a market torn in two. On the one hand, such estimates suggest a tense market, where supply is becoming fragile and geopolitical risks dominate. Current data already shows an upward trend, with oil breaking the $105/barrel threshold in 2026 and macro models pointing to values above $110 in the near term, the specialist added.
On the other hand, he says, there is an obvious gap between the forecasts. Institutions such as the Energy Information Administration even anticipate a drop to $76/barrel in 2027, and JP Morgan sees prices around $60.
This discrepancy is not a bug – it is the essence of the oil market, a precarious balance between two opposing forces.
“Expensive oil is no longer an anomaly, but a scenario. If the “Trading Economics” scenario materializes, it will not be the result of explosive demand, but of constrained supply. Middle East conflict and logistical bottlenecks could push prices as high as $120 in extreme scenarios, according to recent analysis”says the expert.
Moreover, international institutions warn that disruptions in the region may lead to significant price increases and a slowdown in the global economy. In other words, expensive oil isn't about economic growth, it's about risk.
Europe remains the most vulnerable in this context. For European states, including Romania, the implications are direct and far from comfortable: persistent inflation fueled by rising energy and transport prices, increasing pressure on industrial costs and the risk of economic stagnation in energy-intensive sectors.
Economies dependent on energy imports become the first to be affected by an oil price reaching $120/barrel. The effects are not isolated, but ripple through the chain, from fuel to food, amplifying the impact on the entire economy.
In this context, says Chisăliță, the question is no longer whether oil will reach $120 or drop to $60, but which geopolitical scenario will prevail. If tensions persist, the scenario advanced by Trading Economics becomes plausible. However, if the supply increases and the conflicts moderate, scenarios of falling prices could gain ground.
“The reality is that the oil market is no longer determined solely by economic factorsbut increasingly geopolitical. The forecast of over $120/barrel is not only worrisome, but also symbolic: it marks the return of oil as an instrument of global power. If in the 2010s the market was dominated by overproduction and technology, in the 2020s it is dominated by conflicts and uncertainty”the specialist added.
