Experts estimate that as a result of the ongoing conflict with Iran, energy prices will increase by 24% this year, provided that the most serious disruptions end in May. However, if it escalates, the consequences may be much more severe.
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Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz remains a key flashpoint – a strategic route through which 20 percent flows under normal conditions. global consumption of oil and LNG. Its blockade – Tehran's response to the attack on February 28 – caused a historic paralysis in the supply of energy resources.
Although a ceasefire has been in place since April 8, the route remains largely blocked. The World Bank bases its optimistic forecast on the assumption that transport across the strait will be fully restored by October.
The price of oil may increase
The tense situation is reflected in commodity prices. The price of Brent crude oil in mid-April was 50 percent higher than at the beginning of the year.
In the script base price, the average price of a barrel in 2026 will be $86. (compared to $69 in 2025).
In the script pessimistically, the price may jump to $115.if oil installations are further damaged and exports are not restored quickly.
“The war is hitting the global economy in overlapping waves: first through high energy prices, then high food prices, and finally through high inflation, which will push up interest rates and increase borrowing costs,” explains Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank.
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The specter of a food crisis
High energy prices are only the beginning of the problems. The bank estimates that the prices of artificial fertilizers will increase by 31% this year, which will directly translate into more expensive food.
According to data from the World Food Program the prolonged conflict puts the food security of as many as 45 million people into question. The overall commodity price index – which includes energy, fertilizers and metals – is expected to rise 16% in 2026, heralding long-term inflationary pressures around the world.
