July brought a decrease in most base inflation measures in Poland. However, it still exceeds the 2.5 % NBP target, although it has been in the band of permissible deviations for several months.

According to the data published today, the National Bank of Poland in July 2025. Inflation on the year on year:

• After switching off food and energy prices amounted to 3.3 percent compared to 3.4 percent recorded in June. Economists expected her to decrease up to 3.3 percent.
• After excluding administered prices (subject to state control), it amounted to 2.7 percent. against 2.5 percent a month earlier,
• After turning off the most variable prices, it amounted to 3.9 percent. compared to 4.5 percent a month earlier;
• so -called 15 % The average average, which eliminates the influence of 15 percent. Price basket with the smallest and greatest dynamics amounted to 3.2 percent. compared to 3.7 percent a month earlier.

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In this way, base inflation returned to the level of May, when it reached the lowest value in 5 years. July was also the fourth month in a row, in which CPI base inflation was included in the range of permissible deviations (i.e. +/- 1 percentage point) from the 2.5 % goal of the National Bank of Poland.

However, this is still a reading that goes beyond the 2.5 % inflation target of the National Bank of Poland. This state of affairs has been going on for nearly 6 years. Basic inflation for the last time was within the purpose of October 2019.

– The National Bank of Poland calculates four base inflation indicators every month, which helps to understand the nature of inflation in Poland. The CPI indicator shows the average change in prices of the entire, large basket of goods bought by consumers. When calculating basic inflation indicators, price changes are subjected to various segments of this basket. This allows you to better identify the sources of inflation and forecast its future trends more accurately. It also allows you to determine to what extent the inflation is permanent, and in which it is shaped, e.g. by short -term changes in prices caused by unpredictable factors – we read in the NBP message.

However, the “wide” consumer inflation rate (CPI) in July was 3.1% higher than a year ago. It was a reading similar to the 2.5 % NBP target, but still exceeding it. Economists assume that by the end of the year CPI inflation will gradually lower and stabilize below 3%.

– The indicator of inflation most often used by analysts is the inflation indicator after turning off food and energy prices. It shows the price trends of these goods and services, which the monetary policy pursued by the Central Bank has a relatively large impact. Energy prices (including fuels) are determined not on the domestic market, but on global markets, sometimes also under the influence of speculation. Food prices largely depend, among others From the weather and the current situation on the domestic and global agricultural market – added in the statement of the National Bank of Poland.

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