Double pressure. Belarus and Hungary do not let Ukrainians forget about themselves
In the last two weeks the war is clearly entering its summer phase. Winter attacks and counterattacks were ineffective and extremely risky. Summer promises to be dynamic and brutal.
Russia has already begun active military operations in the vicinity of Sumy and Chernihiv in northeastern Ukraine. Not only has the shelling intensified there, but we are also observing attacks by armored groups and the capture of villages located closer to the border with Russia.
Lukashenko arm in arm with Putin
Are these “preparations” another bluff intended to force Ukraine to move more troops and equipment to the northeast, thereby weakening the defenses in the south and Donbas? Or maybe Russian President Vladimir Putin finally convinced Lukashenko to actively participate in the war against Ukraine?
Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, and Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus. Moscow, February 26, 2026EPA/MAXIM SHIPENKOV / POOL / PAP
We will know the answer to this question in June or July, when the scale of Russia's summer offensive will become clear. According to Ukrainian military sources Putin has set a new deadline for his troops to conquer the entire Donbas – September 2026.
Restricting access to the Internet is intended to help Russia in avoiding organized protests if the authorities decide on forced mass mobilizationwhich now seems more likely than before.
Fewer and fewer people want to fight for money, and a large offensive would require an increase in troop numbers by at least 300,000-400,000. soldiers. The mobilization and training process may take two to three months. This means that if Russia begins mobilization in May, the front will receive reinforcements in July, the peak of summer hostilities.
There is a long road to improving relations with Budapest
In March, Orban tried to force Kiev to resume oil supplies by blocking an EU loan to Ukraine, but President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his opinion on the matter, saying: “I would not reopen this pipeline.”
Recently, however, in a conversation with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Zelensky announced that the pipeline would partially resume operations by the end of April. Magyar expected Russian oil to flow to Hungary immediately after his election, but this did not happen. Now that the transit of Russian oil through Ukraine has resumed, many Ukrainians feel bitter.
After Orban's departure, Ukraine may want to make a gesture to support Hungarian interests. However, the transit of Russian oil to Hungary through Ukraine – in the fifth year of an unjust and brutal war, during the escalation of attacks by the aggressor – is contrary to common sense. Russia will make money by selling oil to Hungaryand this money will undoubtedly be used to finance further crimes against the Ukrainian nation.
Another issue that no one has raised so far is the issue of Russia's payments for transit. Now that the pipeline is operational again, Russia must, as before, pay Ukraine for its use.
The money thus obtained by Ukraine will be used for the war effort. In other words, oil supplies to Hungary will contribute to the escalation of the conflict on both sides. The key, however, is that Russia will earn money in the European Union, and the EU itself will partially finance Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Although Magyar claims that he does not see Ukraine in the European Union for the next 10 years, and Hungary clearly avoids supporting Ukraine in its defensive war against Russia, Kiev does not give up hope for the normalization of relations with Budapest. A “neutral” Hungary towards Ukraine would be definitely better than a hostile one.
