Experts warn against Putin's provocation in Belarus. Operating under a foreign flag could drag a country into war
According to analysts, Russia is preparing a large-scale provocation on the territory of Belarus “under a foreign flag”, aimed at accusing Ukraine of sabotage in this country.
This is not the end of disturbing reports regarding Belarus.
According to former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba, Minsk is increasingly preparing for military escalation against Ukraine and increasing pressure on NATO's eastern flank. This is indicated by five signals: from mobilization to growing cooperation with Russia.
Kuleba drew attention to Lukashenko's recent meeting with the highest military command of Belarus, during which the Belarusian leader stated that the era of peace for Belarus was over and announced: “We are preparing for war.”
Russian provocation in Belarus
According to the GI Law Affairs think tank, the Russians are preparing information support for the provocations of the Russian secret services. This week, a recording of the interrogation of a captured soldier of the special unit of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (HUR) may be published.
Under pressure, he is allegedly expected to testify about the collection of intelligence by Ukrainian intelligence regarding fuel storage facilities, crude oil supply routes for processing at key Belarusian enterprises, and shipment schedules of petroleum products, primarily for Russia's needs.
Moreover, according to information from the analytical department of the Prawa Sprawa think tank, during the scheduled press conference, the Ukrainian prisoner is to reveal information about the collection by HUR electronic intelligence units of conversations between Belarusian air controllers and Belavia airline pilots.
— I would like to point out that in November 2025, the United States officially lifted sanctions against the Belarusian airline Belavia, removing it from the sanctions list. This decision was a consequence of Belarus's release of 52 political prisoners in September 2025. Restrictions were also lifted on individual aircraft, including Alexander Lukashenko's plane, says Dmytro Snegiryov, a military expert and co-chairman of the GI Law think tank, in an interview with Espreso.
Alexander LukashenkoContributor/Getty Images/Getty Images
The scenario described by analysts combines both an information-psychological operation and possible sabotage activities in critical infrastructure enterprises of the Republic of Belarus.
The actions of the Russian special services are an attempt to accuse Ukraine of destabilizing the internal situation in Belarus. They bear the hallmarks of active operations in the information space, aimed at shaping the anti-Ukrainian information agenda.
Lukashenko warns Poland
Lukashenko assured that in the event of an attack, Belarus will defend itself with all available means, although this does not mean the immediate use of nuclear weapons. “We have enough other measures to counteract this,” he noted.
