The censure motion, the poisoned apple for PSD. Why every mistake of Sorin Grindeanu makes AUR even stronger
The current parliamentary configuration places AUR in a favorable position, considering the political crisis triggered by PSD's decision to withdraw its political support to Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan. The political analysts consulted by “Adevărul” emphasize that the real stake of the party led by George Simion is not necessarily the fall of the Bolojan Government, but to portray itself as a dominant actor on the political scene.
PHOTO: Inquam Photos
George Simion announced, in a video posted on his Facebook page, what are the conditions of the party led by him to enter into negotiations with the other parties. Simion says he wants the number of parliamentarians reduced to 300, the elimination of budget subsidies for parties and elections in two rounds for mayors and presidents of County Councils. Only after these wishes turn into laws will he discuss with the other parties.
Instead, the leader of the AUR senators, Petrișor Peiu, hinted that the party could vote for a censure motion initiated by the PSD.
“I see no reason why we would not vote for that motion,” Peiu claimed.
A calculated game
Cristian Hrițuc, former presidential adviser, believes that the AUR adopts a carefully calibrated political strategy, through which it exerts pressure on the other formations to support initiatives that are very popular among the public, but difficult to assume within their own parties.
“George Simion, whether he likes it or not, plays very well politically. His proposals are built so that they sound very good to the public. They are themes with broad support, not only in the AUR electorate, but also among the reformist public. The problem is that these proposals are very difficult for the big parties to accept, because they generate internal tensions. For example, returning to two rounds is unacceptable for the UDMR. Basically, Simion raises the bar and says: 'You want support? We only discuss these terms. These themes have very high support, probably 70-80% of the voters would support them. This allows them to consolidate their position without entering into a formal alliance.” explained Cristian Hrițuc for “Adevărul”.
According to the former presidential adviser, there seems to be a strategy within the AUR to fool the negotiating partners.
“In my view, there is also a 'good cop, bad cop' game inside AUR. The messages are not identical: George Simion rejects the idea of voting on a motion, while other leaders leave the door open. It is a negotiating tactic.” says Cristian Hrițuc.
AUR may not support the PSD motion
Beyond the AUR's internal game, Hrițuc identifies a possible trap that the AUR leader can set for the social democrats.
“In fact, it can also be a trap for the PSD. The scenario would be that the PSD submits a no-confidence motion that does not pass, which would make the party vulnerable in front of public opinion, showing it as incapable of taking an approach to the end. The AUR has a direct interest in this game, because it is fighting for the same electorate as the PSD. Any weakening of the PSD helps the AUR. All the scandals in the coalition only increase the AUR in the polls.” says the former presidential adviser.
The conditions that AUR leader George Simion sets for the parties in the former coalition. “Three things we want from these gentlemen”
The most favorable scenario for AUR would be, according to Hrițuc, to bring down the government by its own motion, a situation in which the PSD would be put in an extremely difficult position.
“Furthermore, the AUR would prefer to topple the Government through its own motion, not through one of the PSD. In that scenario, it would dominate the public agenda, from the text of the motion to the debates in Parliament, and would become the central actor of the political scene. If the PSD ended up voting for a motion initiated by the AUR, it would be put in a complicated position, because it would validate an approach of a party labeled as extremist, after it failed to pass own motion”, explained Hrițuc.
For his part, political analyst Cristian Andrei believes that a possible collaboration of the PSD with the AUR for the passage of a no-confidence motion represents a major strategic error for Sorin Grindeanu's party.
“It's a bad scenario for PSD, because he would have to vote against a government he was part of, so explain his contribution, which means points for AUR, and then play in a political score, but this time according to AUR's rules, which, again, would be an own goal for PSD. Such a strategy, which probably wants to make PSD big, will only help to legitimize and make AUR even stronger and mainstream than until now, and in the future, it will only succeed in showing that PSD is no longer the big party that believes, but that it needs support and that it depends on others.” explained Cristian Andrei for “Adevărul”.
The analyst emphasizes that the stake goes beyond the simple fall of the government and enters the area of redefining the power relations in the entire political scene.
“Such a vote would put AUR in a king-maker position, in which it will become the party that can even determine who remains prime minister in Romania, after the motion. AUR will officially enter the books, it will become a card that everyone will fight to play, including to support a minority government. So, such a strategy, which would probably like to make PSD big, will only help to legitimize and make AUR even stronger and mainstream than before, and beyond that, it will only succeed in showing that the PSD is no longer the big party that believes, but that it needs the support and that it depends on others”, pointed out Cristian Andrei, political analyst.
Reading the whole picture, Cristian Hrițuc concludes that AUR is playing a longer game than the immediate crisis of the Bolojan Government.
“Strategically, AUR aims at two things: to show PSD's weakness in front of its own electorate and to take advantage of this weakness at the local level, where PSD organizations can lose people, mayors, councilors, in favor of AUR. At the moment, for AUR, everything that happens inside the coalition is a major political opportunity. The goal is to show the common electorate that AUR represents the real alternative, not PSD”, explained Cristian Hrițuc.
