Wall Street resistant to crises? 88 percent S&P 500 companies break profit records

At this early stage, the S&P 500's first-quarter earnings season has started strongly relative to expectations, writes FactSet. Both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the scale of these surprises are above historical averages.

Analyst consensus estimates compiled by FactSet show double-digit year-over-year earnings growth for the sixth quarter in a row.

A total of 10 percent S&P 500 companies have so far presented actual (i.e. full, not estimated) results for the first quarter of 2026. Of these companies, 88 percent reported EPS above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 78%. and above the 10-year average of 76 percent.

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In total, companies report profits of 10.8 percent. above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 7.3 percent. and above the 10-year average of 7.1 percent. FactSet notes that historical averages reflect the actual performance of all 500 companies, not the actual percentage performance of companies that have reported to that point.

If the actual growth rate for the quarter is 13.2%, it will be the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit (year-over-year) earnings growth for the index.

Eight of the eleven sectors can show annual profit growth, led by the technology, resources, financials and utilities sectors. On the other hand, three sectors are reporting (or expected to see) year-on-year profit declines, led by the energy and healthcare sectors.

In terms of revenues, 84 percent S&P 500 companies reported actual revenues above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 70%. and above the 10-year average 67 percent.

In total, companies report revenues by 2.0 percent. above estimates, which is equivalent to the 5-year average of 2.0%, but exceeds the 10-year average of 1.5%. FactSet notes that the historical averages reflect the actual performance of all 500 companies, not the actual percentage performance of those companies that have reported to this point.

As a result, the first quarter combined revenue growth rate is 9.9% today, compared to a 9.8% revenue growth rate last week and a 9.8% revenue growth rate at the end of the first quarter (March 31).

If the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter is 9.9%, it will be the highest revenue growth rate recorded by the index since the third quarter of 2022 (it was 11.0%).

All eleven sectors report (or are expected to report) annual revenue growth, led by Technology, Communication Services and Finance.

For the period from the second to the fourth quarter of 2026, analysts forecast the profit growth rate at 20.1%, 22.2%, respectively. and 19.9 percent. For the entire year 2026, analysts predict an increase in profits (year to year) of 18.0 percent.

The 12-month P/E ratio is 20.9, which is above the 5-year average (19.9) and above the 10-year average (18.9). The P/E ratio is also higher than the forecast P/E ratio of 19.7 recorded at the end of the first quarter (March 31).

In the coming week, 93 companies from the S&P 500 list (and 7 companies from the Dow 30 index) are scheduled to publish their first quarter results. (PAP Business)

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